Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Bowling Green

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Falcons for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Sep 5, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Caullin Lacy (5) runs the ball against the James Madison Dukes during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Louisville defeated James Madison 28-14. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (2-0, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Bowling Green (2-1, 0-0 MAC) on Saturday, Sept. 20 at 12:00 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Falcons:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Bowling Green	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	RV/RV
CFP	N/A	N/A
SOS	85th	125th
SOR	66th	34th
SP+	101st	26th
FPI	88th	43rd
Sagarin	100th	21st
Kelley Ford	89th	32nd

Offensive Statistics

	Bowling Green	Louisville
Total Offense	114th (314.0)	62nd (403.0)
Yards Per Play	119th (4.71)	32nd (6.72)
Scoring Offense	95th (23.0)	34th (39.5)
Passing Yards	104th (176.3)	64th (232.0)
Yards Per Completion	119th (9.28)	60th (12.21)
Rushing Yards	88th (137.7)	67th (171.0)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	112th (3.65)	26th (5.70)
First Downs Gained	91st (55)	125th (40th)
3rd Down Con. %	92nd (37.0%)	35th (47.8%)
4th Down Con. %	70th (50.0%)	70th (50.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	102nd (75.0)	82nd (83.3%)
Turnovers Lost	1st (0)	77th (4)
Interceptions Thrown	1st (0)	91st (3)
Fumbles Lost	1st (0)	39th (1)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	85th (5.67)	54th (4.50)
Sacks Allowed	97th (2.33)	62nd (1.50)
Avg. Time of Possession	25th (33:16)	116th (26:37)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Bowling Green	Louisville
Total Defense	60th (320.7)	8th (206.5)
Yards Allowed Per Play	88th (5.47)	2nd (3.15)
Scoring Defense	47th (18.0)	37th (15.5)
Passing Yards Allowed	79th (215.0)	7th (106.5)
Rushing Yards Allowed	45th (105.7)	35th (100.0)
First Downs Allowed	42nd (46)	8th (29)
3rd Down Defensive %	45th (32.4%)	53rd (33.3%)
4th Down Defensive %	43rd (42.9%)	24th (33.3%)
Red Zone Defensive %	75th (85.7%)	37th (75.0%)
Turnovers Gained	26th (5)	95th (2)
Interceptions Caught	57th (2)	85th (1)
Fumbles Recovered	8th (3)	56th (1)
TFL Per Game	31st (7.0)	49th (6.5)
Sacks Per Game	53rd (2.33)	1st (5.00)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	Bowling Green	Louisville
Net Punting	83rd (38.77)	133rd (27.17)
Avg. Kickoff Return	6th (42.60)	10th (37.67)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	51st (17.29)	46th (17.00)
Avg. Punt Return	41st (11.33)	8th (22.33)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	45th (3.00)	96th (9.00)
Field Goal Attempts	9-10	3-3
PAT	6-6	6-7

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have an 87.9 percent chance to win against the Falcons. Louisville has an FPI rating of 6.7 (43rd overall), whereas Bowling Green has an FPI rating of -6.0 (88th overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 93.54 percent chance to take down the Falcons. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 13.7 (26th overall), whereas Bowling Green has an SP+ rating of -9.6 (101st overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 94 percent chance to defeat the Falcons. Louisville has a KFord rating of 9.8 (32nd overall), whereas Bowling Green has a KFord rating of -7.8 (89th overall)

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 38, Bowling Green 7.

(Photo of Caullin Lacy: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

You can follow Louisville Cardinals On SI for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter/X and Instagram:

Facebook - @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter/X - @LouisvilleOnSI
Instagram - @louisvilleonsi

You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter/X and @mattmcgavic.bsky.social on Bluesky