SMU vs. Louisville Prediction, Odds for ACC Tournament 2nd Round

The SMU Mustangs are looking to get off the bubble during the ACC Tournament, and they took a step in the right direction on Tuesday, blowing out Syracuse to snap a four-game losing streak.

Now, SMU takes on a ranked Louisville team that is No. 14 in KenPom’s latest rankings and a lock for the NCAA Tournament. However, the Cardinals may be facing an uphill battle to make a deep run in the conference tourney.

Mikel Brown Jr. (back) has been ruled out for the entire ACC Tournament, which puts the Cardinals in a bit of a tough spot as they try to improve their resume ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

Still, oddsmakers have them favored by 6.5 points in this matchup after they split their regular-season meetings with the Mustangs. Both teams won at home although SMU went on a late four-game skid at the end of the regular season that pushed it to the bubble ahead of the NCAA Tournament.

A win over Louisville would go a long way for SMU securing a spot in the tourney on Selection Sunday.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this second-round battle in the ACC Tournament.

SMU vs. Louisville Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

SMU +6.5 (-110)
Louisville -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

SMU: +220
Louisville: -270

Total

163.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

SMU vs. Louisville How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, March 11
Time: 2:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Spectrum Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
SMU record: 20-12
Louisville record: 22-9

SMU vs. Louisville Key Player to Watch

Ryan Conwell, Guard, Louisville

Senior guard Ryan Conwell is going to have to do a lot of the heavy lifting for the Cardinals in the ACC Tournament with Mikel Brown Jr. out until at least the NCAA Tourney with an injury.

This season, Conwell is averaging 18.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game while shooting 40.8 percent from the field and 35.4 percent from 3-point range. While Conwell has been one of the best scorers in the ACC, he has not fared well against SMU.

In two meetings with the Mustangs this season, Conwell is averaging just 12.0 points and 1.5 assists per game while shooting 25.8 percent from the field and 13.6 percent from 3. It’s just a two-game sample size, but it’s certainly concerning for the Cardinals if they want to win (and cover) in this game.

SMU vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

Prior to losing four games in a row to close regular season ACC play, the Mustangs hung 95 points on the Cardinals in a 10-point win at home.

Now, with Brown out of the lineup, I think there’s a path for SMU to at least cover in this game.

The Mustangs are 28th in effective field goal percentage and 24th in 3-point percentage this season, and Louisville’s offense is going to take a hit without Brown, who is averaging over 18 points per game this season.

SMU’s defense has been the major concern (105th in the country in KenPom’s defensive rating), but will it be able to hang around with the Cardinals down such an important player?

I think so, as SMU is 5-5-1 against the spread as an underdog this season and has played well against elite teams, beating North Carolina while losing by seven to Duke and just four to Virginia in ACC play.

This game means a lot more for SMU’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament, and even if it doesn’t win, this spread seems a little too big with Brown out.

Pick: SMU +6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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