Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

A host of U of L defenders brought down Virginia's Malik Washington (4) during their game at the L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. on Nov. 9, 2023. | Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (4-0, 1-0 ACC) is set to face Virginia (4-1, 1-0 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 4 at 3:30 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Virginia	Louisville
AP/USAT	24th/RV	RV/RV
CFP	N/A	N/A
SOS	100th	113th
SOR	39th	19th
SP+	42nd	24th
FPI	34th	35th
Sagarin	35th	21st
Kelley Ford	37th	29th
CFB Graphs	22nd	49th

Offensive Statistics

	Virginia	Louisville
Total Offense	5th (539.6)	59th (409.3)
Yards Per Play	28th (6.76)	52nd (6.13)
Scoring Offense	8th (45.6)	24th (38.3)
Passing Yards	22nd (296.2)	29th (279.0)
Yards Per Completion	68th (11.85)	69th (11.75)
Rushing Yards	12th (243.4)	102nd (130.3)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	22nd (5.61)	82nd (4.24)
First Downs Gained	6th (133)	92nd (84)
3rd Down Con. %	10th (57.0%)	38th (45.3%)
4th Down Con. %	62nd (58.3%)	79th (50.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	80th (83.9%)	35th (92.9%)
Turnovers Lost	55th (5)	76th (6)
Interceptions Thrown	111th (5)	88th (4)
Fumbles Lost	1st (0)	56th (2)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	13th (3.40)	108th (6.25)
Sacks Allowed	9th (0.60)	80th (2.00)
Avg. Time of Possession	7th (34:04)	39th (31:37)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Virginia	Louisville
Total Defense	64th (353.6)	18th (268.3)
Yards Allowed Per Play	82nd (5.61)	25th (4.55)
Scoring Defense	67th (23.2)	37th (18.8)
Passing Yards Allowed	80th (222.2)	15th (150.8)
Rushing Yards Allowed	56th (131.4)	43rd (117.5)
First Downs Allowed	53rd (81)	14th (57)
3rd Down Defensive %	13th (25.4%)	23rd (28.8%)
4th Down Defensive %	80th (58.3%)	15th (28.6%)
Red Zone Defensive %	81st (86.7%)	5th (62.5%)
Turnovers Gained	33rd (7)	7th (9)
Interceptions Caught	58th (3)	9th (6)
Fumbles Recovered	13th (4)	23rd (3)
TFL Per Game	88th (5.2)	90th (5.0)
Sacks Per Game	60th (2.20)	18th (3.00)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	Virginia	Louisville
Net Punting	64th (40.40)	93rd (38.64)
Avg. Kickoff Return	2nd (42.80)	13th (30.43)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	52nd (18.00)	50th (17.90)
Avg. Punt Return	49th (10.42)	4th (24.60)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	123rd (15.50)	18th (0.80)
Field Goal Attempts	8-11	9-10
PAT	28-28	14-15

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 56.0 percent chance to win against the Cavaliers. Louisville has an FPI rating of 8.6 (35th overall), whereas Virginia has an FPI rating of 8.7 (34th overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 70.78 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 15.5 (24th overall), whereas Virginia has an SP+ rating of 8.7 (42nd overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 70 percent chance to defeat the Cavaliers. Louisville has a KFord rating of 10.9 (29th overall), whereas Virginia has a KFord rating of 8.1 (37th overall)

- College Football Graphs Prediction: Per College Football Graph's EPA Margin metric, the Cardinals have a 35.0 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.007 (49th overall), whereas Virginia has an EPA Margin rating of 0.022 (22nd overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 38, Virginia 31.

(Photo via Sam Upshaw Jr. - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)

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