Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Miami

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Hurricanes for their Friday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Nov 18, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Louisville Cardinals tight end Nate Kurisky (85) celebrates with tight end Josh Lifson (42) after catching the football against the Miami Hurricanes during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (4-1, 1-1 ACC) is set to face Miami (5-0, 1-0 ACC) on Friday, Oct. 17 at 7:00 p.m. EST at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Hurricanes:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Miami	Louisville
AP/USAT	2nd/2nd	NR/RV
CFP	N/A	N/A
SOS	14th	95th
SOR	4th	34th
SP+	15th	26th
FPI	8th	37th
Sagarin	6th	25th
Kelley Ford	9th	30th
CFB Graphs	4th	36th

Offensive Statistics

	Miami	Louisville
Total Offense	41st (428.0)	61st (404.0)
Yards Per Play	35th (6.35)	56th (5.91)
Scoring Offense	35th (35.0)	29th (36.0)
Passing Yards	37th (264.2)	21st (289.0)
Yards Per Completion	61st (11.79)	85th (11.20)
Rushing Yards	62nd (163.8)	112th (115.0)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	59th (4.45)	100th (3.83)
First Downs Gained	103rd (113th)	106th (110)
3rd Down Con. %	29th (46.7)	38th (44.3)
4th Down Con. %	29th (66.7)	80th (50.0)
Red Zone Con. %	19th (94.7)	22nd (94.4)
Turnovers Lost	6th (3)	79th (8)
Interceptions Thrown	26th (3)	77th (5)
Fumbles Lost	1st (0)	60th (3)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	7th (3.20)	115th (6.40)
Sacks Allowed	37th (1.20)	111th (2.60)
Avg. Time of Possession	14th (33:00)	29th (31:45)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Miami	Louisville
Total Defense	16th (276.4)	12th (262.0)
Yards Allowed Per Play	17th (4.43)	15th (4.38)
Scoring Defense	9th (13.6)	48th (21.0)
Passing Yards Allowed	35th (189.0)	8th (150.4)
Rushing Yards Allowed	14th (87.4)	31st (111.6)
First Downs Allowed	8th (83)	3rd (71)
3rd Down Defensive %	14th (28.8)	26th (31.3)
4th Down Defensive %	47th (46.2)	25th (40.0)
Red Zone Defensive %	70th (8.67)	9th (70.0)
Turnovers Gained	40th (9)	40th (9)
Interceptions Caught	46th (5)	29th (6)
Fumbles Recovered	24th (4)	50th (3)
TFL Per Game	42nd (6.2)	60th (5.8)
Sacks Per Game	45th (2.40)	23rd (2.80)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	Miami	Louisville
Net Punting	62nd (39.76)	93rd (38.67)
Avg. Kickoff Return	22nd (25.33)	20th (26.22)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	33rd (17.00)	48th (17.90)
Avg. Punt Return	70th (8.67)	4th (21.50)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	18th (2.25)	13th (1.17)
Field Goal Attempts	5-5	11-13
PAT	22-22	17-18

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 15.1 percent chance to win against the Hurricanes. Louisville has an FPI rating of 8.6 (37th overall), whereas Miami has an FPI rating of 19.7 (8th overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 32.11 percent chance to take down the Hurricanes. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 15.1 (26th overall), whereas Miami has an SP+ rating of 20.5 (15th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 19 percent chance to defeat the Hurricanes. Louisville has a KFord rating of 10.2 (30th overall), whereas Miami has a KFord rating of 21.1 (9th overall)

- College Football Graphs Prediction: Per College Football Graph's EPA Margin metric, the Cardinals have a 22.8 percent chance to take down the Hurricanes. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.157 (36th overall), whereas Miami has an EPA Margin rating of 0.469 (4th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Miami 31, Louisville 24.

(Photo of Nate Kurisky: Sam Navarro - Imagn Images)

You can follow Louisville Cardinals On SI for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter/X and Instagram:

Facebook - @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter/X - @LouisvilleOnSI
Instagram - @louisvilleonsi

You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter/X and @mattmcgavic.bsky.social on Bluesky