Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Boston College

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Eagles for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Oct 25, 2024; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Louisville Cardinals tight end Mark Redman (83) tries to make a catch during the first half against the Boston College Eagles at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (5-1, 2-1 ACC) is set to face Boston College (1-6, 0-4 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 25 at 7:30 p.m. EST at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Eagles:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Boston College	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	19th/22nd
CFP	N/A	N/A
SOS	91st	40th
SOR	126th	17th
SP+	104th	24th
FPI	96th	25th
Sagarin	102nd	19th
Kelley Ford	94th	26th
CFB Graphs	126th	12th

Offensive Statistics

	Boston College	Louisville
Total Offense	75th (372.6)	63rd (397.8)
Yards Per Play	77th (5.61)	62nd (5.82)
Scoring Offense	76th (27.1)	44th (21.0)
Passing Yards	29th (272.4)	21st (282.2)
Yards Per Completion	63rd (11.84)	86th (11.14)
Rushing Yards	126th (100.1)	113th (115.7)
Yards Per Rush Attempt	124th (3.29)	103rd (3.83)
First Downs Gained	80th (140)	95th (131)
3rd Down Con. %	69th (40.2)	49th (42.9)
4th Down Con. %	75th (53.8)	56th (60.0)
Red Zone Con. %	87th (81.5)	18th (94.7%)
Turnovers Lost	106th (11)	83rd (9th)
Interceptions Thrown	59th (5)	59th (5)
Fumbles Lost	119th (6)	75th (4)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	73rd (5.43)	110th (6.17)
Sacks Allowed	112th (2.71)	100th (2.33)
Avg. Time of Possession	117th (27:34)	31st (31:40)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

	Boston College	Louisville
Total Defense	101st (397.3)	10th (274.0)
Yards Allowed Per Play	93rd (5.77)	15th (4.59)
Scoring Defense	124th (33.9)	44th (21.0)
Passing Yards Allowed	115th (256.3)	20th (170.5)
Rushing Yards Allowed	61st (141.0)	22nd (103.5)
First Downs Allowed	104th (151)	3rd (86)
3rd Down Def. %	91st (41.3)	24th (32.9)
4th Down Def. %	97th (61.5)	31st (41.7)
Red Zone Def. %	121st (93.1)	32nd (78.6)
Turnovers Gained	95th (6)	12th (13)
Interceptions Caught	75th (4)	6th (10)
Fumbles Recovered	88th (2)	58th (3)
TFL Per Game	109th (4.4)	83rd (5.2)
Sacks Per Game	94th (1.71)	46th (2.33)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

	Boston College	Louisville
Net Punting	56th (40.19)	107th (37.79)
Avg. Kickoff Return	98th (18.20)	18th (26.22)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	104th (22.60)	44th (18.00)
Avg. Punt Return	30th (11.91)	5th (19.12)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	8th (1.33)	6th (1.17)
Field Goal Attempts	10-10	12-14
PAT	22-22	20-21

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 93.1 percent chance to win against the Eagles. Louisville has an FPI rating of 10.3 (25th overall), whereas Boston College has an FPI rating of -7.9 (96th overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 93.76 percent chance to take down the Eagles. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 14.2 (24th overall), whereas Boston College has an SP+ rating of -9.4 (104th overall).

- Kelley Ford Prediction: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 96 percent chance to defeat the Eagles. Louisville has a KFord rating of 12.8 (26th overall), whereas Boston College has a KFord rating of -7.9 (94th overall)

- College Football Graphs Prediction: Per College Football Graph's EPA Margin metric, the Cardinals have an 84.5 percent chance to take down the Eagles. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.299 (12th overall), whereas Boston College has an EPA Margin rating of -0.288 (126th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 45, Boston College 10.

(Photo of Mark Redman: Eric Canha - Imagn Images)

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