Way-Too-Early Louisville 2026 Opponent Preview: Florida State

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - With the summer months now on the horizon and rosters across college football now firmly set in stone, Louisville Cardinals On SI will provide way-too-early previews for each opponent on their 2026 schedule.

Next up, we continue our way-too-early preview series with their Friday night showdown vs. Florida State:

Florida State Seminoles

2026 Meeting: Friday, Oct. 9 at L&N Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Last Meeting: Florida State won 16-6 on Dec. 2, 2023 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C.
All-Time Series: Florida State leads 18-6

Among the now-138 head coaches at the FBS level, none of them enter the 2026 season on a seat that is hotter than the one that Mike Norvell sits on. Ever since the 2023 season, where Florida State went 13-1 and won the ACC, it has been an unmitigated disaster in Tallahassee. The Seminoles went just 2-10 in 2024, then followed that up with a 5-7 campaign in 2025. FSU had a glimmer of hope after opening up last season with an upset win over Alabama, but that hope was quickly dashed when ACC play arrived.

This lack of success in the win-loss column came despite having one of the more prolific offenses in the ACC. While turnovers and performance in the red zone held FSU back, their 472.1 yards per game ranked sixth in all of the FBS, while their 33.0 points came in at 22nd. That being said, the 'Noles offense for 2026 will feature a lot of new faces, as well as a new OC after Gus Malzahn's surprise retirement.

That starts with the man under center. With Thomas Castellanos now in the NFL, Florida State went the portal route yet against for their starting quarterback. They eventually landed Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels, who was named the starter by Norvell following spring ball, beating out Kevin Sperry for the job.

Rolling with Daniels as the starter is a bit of a gamble. Last season at Auburn, he was the backup to Jackson Arnold, only seeing time after the latter got benched. Before that, he spent the first three years of his collegiate career at Stanford - the last two of which he was the starter. Daniels is certainly a threat both with his arm and his legs, throwing for 4,783 yards and 24 touchdowns, while also rushing for 1,397 yards and 11 touchdowns in his career. The downside is that he is a turnover machine, throwing 22 interceptions and committing a whopping 17 fumbles (both lost and recovered) during his time in college.

Daniels is the epitome of boom-or-bust, but he'll have one of the best wide receivers in the sport to throw to. First-Team All-ACC selection Duce Robinson, who caught 56 passes for 1,081 yards and six touchdowns last season, is returning for the 2026 season. Micahi Danzy, who logged 27 receptions for 571 yards (for an ACC-best 21.1 yards per reception) and three scores, is also coming back, giving FSU one of the better one-two WR punches in the ACC. East Carolina transfer Desirrio Riles (28/362/2) also gives them a solid option at the tight end spot. The only issue is that the experience and production among the Seminoles' pass catchers takes a massive drop off after these three.

Because of the questions in the passing game, Florida State will likely lean heavily on the run game, and for good reason. After rushing for 1,734 yards and nine touchdowns over the last two seasons at Texas, including 597 yards and three scores in an injury-shortened season last year, Quintrevion Wisner opted to transfer to FSU. They also retain backup running backs Ousmane Kromah (408 rushing yards) and Samuel Singleton Jr. (360 rushing yards and four touchdowns), giving the Seminoles a great chance to post another top-15 rushing attack.

That being said, their offensive line was simply average last season, allowing 1.92 sacks (76th in FBS) and 4.92 tackles for loss (45th in FBS) per game. For better or for worse, FSU lost their top six offensive linemen, restocking their starting five mainly through the portal. Auburn's Xavier Chaplin, Troy's Paul Bowling, Purdue's Bradyn Joiner, returner Andre Otto and Bowling Green's Nate Pabst are the projected starting five, but only Pabst had a Pro Football Focus grade above 65.0 in triple digit snaps last season. Time will tell how this unit comes together, and if it can be an improvement over last season.

Over on defense, Florida State wasn't completely awful from a numbers perspective, with their 328.8 yards and 22.0 points allowed per game ranking 28th and 43rd in the FBS. But like their offense, turnovers and red zone performance didn't help the cause. While it's a unit that did lose half of their top 18 tacklers, there's a good amount of returning experience infused with portal production.

FSU was fairly disruptive up front, ranking 27th and 37th nationally in sacks and tackles for loss per game. Their defensive line brings back their top pass rusher in edge rusher Mandrell Desir, who collected 7.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks, both of which led the team. Returning tackle Daniel Lyons (26 tackles, 3.5 for loss, 2.0 sacks) and Texas A&M transfer edge Rylan Kennedy (14 tackles, 3.5 for loss, 2.0 sacks) compliment him well on the line.

Backing up the line is the strongest unit on the Seminoles' defense at linebacker. Southern Miss' Chris Jones (135 tackles, 9.5 for loss, 3.5 sacks, 2 turnovers) is coming off of an extremely impactful season, and Blake Nichelson (43 tackles, 6.5 for loss) is running it back. Add in UNC's Mikai Gbayor (41 tackles, 2.5 for loss) plus returner Omar Graham (38 tackles), and FSU has a great linebacker rotation.

Then in the secondary, Florida State is no slouch either. While they do lose their top three defensive backs from last year, the Seminoles are still in a good spot here. At cornerback, they added South Alabama standout Nehemiah Chandler (32 tackles, 2.5 for loss, 2 interceptions, 13 PBUs), and he'll be paired with returner Ja'Bril Rawls (40 tackles, 2.0 for loss, 1 interception). Then at safety, second-leader tackler Ashlynd Baker (48 tackles, 5.0 for loss, 3.5 sacks) is part of a back end rotation that includes Illinois State FCS Freshman All-American C.J. Richard Jr. (60 tackles, 3 interceptions) and Duke's Ma'Khi Jones (35 tackles, 1 fumble).

Overall, on paper, Florida State very much has the potential to give Louisville a run for their money. They have a great ground game on offense, and a collection of talent across all three levels on defense. But... the Mike Norvell factor does have to play a role here. Plus, with the Seminoles slated to face SMU, Alabama and Virginia beforehand, will he even make it to the matchup against the Cardinals?

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