How Will Miami's Run Game Fare in ACC Play?
Article photo of Miami right tackle Francis Mauigoa; credit to Brian Smith
It hasn't taken long for the Miami Hurricanes to get used to new offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson's scheme. The No. 18 Miami Hurricanes have completely flipped its performance on offense from last year to this year. Miami has almost doubled its points per game output from 23.6 to 43.8 points per game, which ranks No. 7 in the nation.
With the bolstered offensive line, many expected the Hurricanes to take a leap in its ability to run the ball. However, the success Miami has had so far has been unprecedented. Considering Miami's struggle to run the ball last year, the development and progression of the offensive line and tailbacks have been impressive, to say the least.
Miami is No. 11 in rushing yards per game with 222.5. But, Miami ranks No. 3 in the nation in yards per carry with 6.45, just behind Southern California and Oregon. All of Miami's tailbacks are averaging over five yards per carry. Even Tyler Van Dyke is averaging over seven yards per carry (6 attempts, 43 yards, 7.2 average, and 1 touchdown).
Miami has a great mix in the backfield consisting of speed, agility and power. Don Chaney Jr. and Mark Fletcher Jr. have been Miami's bruisers on the inside, while Henry Parrish Jr. has been Miami's best all-around back. Ajay Allen is Miami's shiftiest and most agile back aside from Parrish. Chris Johnson Jr.'s carries have also increased the last two weeks, and he brings elite speed to Miami's offense
Going into next week's game against Georgia Tech, it is a good bet that Miami will run wild just as it has done all season. It might even be a good bet to think Miami will continue its success on the ground all the way through its ACC foes.
The 2023 data to date, from future opponents, would be why.
GT is allowing 236.5 yards per game, which ranked No. 131 out of 133 FBS teams. The Yellow Jackets have also allowed 9 rushing touchdowns, #108 in the nation. GT has a veteran-led front seven, which is a positive. But, it has struggled to really make an impact in ballgames. To the same token, the Hurricanes been playing a mostly veteran offensive line, which should hold a decided advantage over the Yellow Jackets.
After GT, the Canes will take on North Carolina, which allowed 125 yards per game on the ground, also with a veteran defensive front. Last year, Miami ran for 42 yards on 1.8 yards per carry against the Tar Heels. Despite many returning faces on the front seven, Miami could finally have the edge over UNC's talented front. Note: UNC allowed Appalachian State to rush for 210 yards.
Now, the following week against Clemson presents Miami's toughest test. Clemson, per usual, has one of the nation's top rushing defenses, allowing 79 yards per game which ranks No. 11 in the country.
It is hard to trump history, which is what Miami will have to do if it wishes to get over the hump of losing to the Tigers. Since 2015, Clemson has long since dominated the Hurricanes. But, with the output on offense Miami is seeing now, this year presents as good of a chance as any for the Canes.
The Virginia Cavaliers are allowing 178 yards rushing per game, only #111 in the nation. Last year, Miami was able to develop some success on the ground with a handful of 10-plus yard runs. With UVA seemingly having taken a step back from last year in all facets, Miami has an edge against the Cavs.
North Carolina State has been above average in run defense, much like Louisville, who Miami will play in week 12. Both teams rank inside the top 50 in rushing defense. N.C. St. is allowing 114.5 yards on the ground, No. 46, while Louisville is allowing 114.8, No. 47. N.C. ST has utilized C.J. Clark and Brandon Cleveland as anchors in the middle, while Louisville possesses a strong interior of Ashton Gillotte and Dezmond Tell, both of whom are big bodies and tough to move on the inside.
While Clemson might have the most efficient defensive line front Miami will face in the run game, the Florida State Seminoles have the most talented defensive front Miami will face. The Florida State defensive line goes eight deep in its rotation and its linebacker corps is much of the same.
The Noles are led by standout defensive lineman Jared Verse and linebacker Tatum Bethune, both of whom were absolute steals by the Seminoles in the Transfer Portal last year. With the start Florida State has had to the year, it is tough to project how Miami will do against the Noles. But it's safe to assume that Miami doesn't care, and will run the football as a way to continue to be a balanced offensive attack. It will be interesting to see how well FSU does against Miami's run game.
Boston College is Miami's last regular season game of the year and they allow 188 yards on the ground. Boston College's defense has been subpar to say the least, for it has allowed 35.5 points per game. Its schedule won't get any easier either. If Miami is able to continue its strong momentum through the season, Boston College won't present much of a challenge for the Hurricanes run game.
All in all, the biggest remaining games for Miami are North Carolina, Clemson and Florida State. Miami will likely have success against all aforementioned teams, but it is "wait and see" mode for the Noles and Tigers.
Historically, Clemson owns Miami and it hasn't been close. Miami also had a horrific loss to the Seminoles last year in what was one of the most lopsided games in the rivalry's history.
This year's Miami squad looks hungrier and has played like it. Miami's offensive line and running backs will be a great matchup with the Tigers and Seminoles.
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