Wolverine Digest

Bracket Projections for Michigan Basketball Following Big Wins Over Nebraska, MSU

Looking at where the Wolverines are projected to land in the tournament
Seth Berry|
Jan 27, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Dusty May talks to forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) in the first half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Jan 27, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Dusty May talks to forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) in the first half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

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Michigan Wolverines

The No. 2 Michigan Wolverines secured a pair of top 10 victories last week over Nebraska and Michigan State to move to 20-1 overall and 10-1 in the Big Ten with just over a month remaining in the regular season.

Michigan remains on track to be selected in the NCAA Tournament in mid-March as one of the 1 seeds. At this point, if the Wolverines keep at their current pace, the question may be whether Dusty May's team can secure the top seed overall.

Let's take a look at where Michigan is projected in ESPN and CBS Sports' versions of "bracketology" as things stand today.

ESPN

Over the past couple of weeks, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has had Michigan bouncing between the second and third overall seed with UConn and Duke. As of Wednesday, in light of the Wolverines' two "Quad 1" wins, Lunardi has Michigan slotted as the second No. 1 seed, just behind the Arizona Wildcats.

The Wildcats (22-0), however, are entering a very difficult part of their schedule down the stretch in Big 12 play, with a pair of games against Kansas, a matchup at Houston and bouts with BYU and Texas Tech.

If Arizona is unable to survive that stretch, it could open the door for Michigan to jump up to the top overall seed if the Wolverines were to finish strong.

CBS Sports

CBS Sports' bracket projection as of Wednesday also has the Wolverines as a top seed in the Midwest.

The model, which lays out regions in their entirety, has UConn as the No. 2 seed in the Wolverines' region, with Kansas being the No. 3 seed and Michigan State being the four seed.

Michigan's chances at a No. 1 seed

At Team Rankings,the site publishes teams' projected win/loss record, along with chances of receiving an NCAA Tournament bid, chances of receiving an automatic bid, and chances of getting a No. 1 seed.

The projections, based on the Team Rankings website, are based off thousands of computer simulations run each day during the college basketball season.

Trey McKenney celebrates
Michigan guard Trey McKenney (1) celebrates a basket against Nebraska guard Sam Hoiberg (1) during the second half at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As it stands, the Wolverines have an 84% chance of earning a No. 1 seed, a 44% chance at an automatic bid (winning the Big 10 Tournament), a 100% chance of an NCAA Tournament bid, and are projected to finish with a 28-3 overall record.

Michigan has earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament on three occasions, including in 1985, 1993 and 2021.

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Published
Seth Berry
SETH BERRY

Seth began writing on Michigan athletics in 2015 and has remained in the U-M media space ever since, which includes stops at Maize N Brew and Rivals before coming onto Michigan On SI in June of 2025. Seth has covered various angles of Michigan football and basketball, including recruiting, overall team coverage and feature/analysis stories relating to the Wolverines. His passion for Michigan sports and desire to tell stories led him to the sports journalism world. He is a 2020 graduate of Western Michigan University and is the former sports editor of the Western Herald, WMU's student newspaper.

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