CFP Set to Expand to 24 Teams, Opening the Door to More Playoff Access and Mismatches

According to ESPN's Pete Thamel, the College Football Playoff will expand to 24 teams before the 2027 season.

Jan 18, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; A display honoring previous national champions Alabama (2016 and 18), LSU (2020), Georgia (2022) and Michigan (2024) at the College Football Playoff Fan Central at the Georgia World Congress Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The era of the 12-team playoff format appears close to an end. According to a report from ESPN's Pete Thamel, the College Football Playoff will soon double in size, moving to 24 teams at the start of the 2027 season.

The decision, should it come to pass, will polarize opinions. The current format has already created significant quality disparities. Just last season, only one of the eight games played between the first round and quarterfinals resulted in a single-digit margin of victory (Texas' 39-31 win over Arizona State in double overtime). Bringing 12 additional programs into the equation will increase access for certain conferences, but it could also come at a watchability cost for the sport's playoff system.

History of the College Football Playoff

Ohio State Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) scores a 33-yard touchdown between Oregon Ducks defensive back Chris Seisay (12) and defensive back Troy Hill (13) during the first quarter of the College Football Playoff National Championship at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Jan. 12, 2015. (Adam Cairns / The Columbus Dispatch) | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The formalized College Football Playoff began in the 2014 season. At that time, only four schools qualified, with the Ohio State Buckeyes controversially receiving a nod over the Baylor Bears and TCU Horned Frogs. Despite the debate over Ohio State and other polarizing snubs -- the undefeated 2023 Florida State Seminoles most recently -- the four-team format remained in place for a full decade.

Michigan qualified for the College Football Playoff three times under the four-team format. Each time, the Wolverines entered as a top-2 seed. In their most recent appearance, they won a national championship over the Washington Huskies.

Starting with the 2024 season, the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams. That format expanded access to not only more schools, but more programs from non-Power Four conferences. In the first two years of the 12-team era, three Group of Five teams reached the playoff, three times as many as had done so during the 10 years of the four-team era.

What playoff expansion would mean for Michigan

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh against the Washington Huskies in the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Because Michigan already plays in one of college football's two biggest conferences, doubling the number of playoff teams won't necessarily have the same effect as it would for, say, the top programs in the Pac-12. However, history suggests the Wolverines would have benefited from a larger playoff in the recent past.

From 2014 to 2025, the Wolverines ranked outside the then-relevant range for playoff qualification but inside the top 24 five times on Selection Day:

• 2015: 14
• 2016: 6
• 2018: 7
• 2019: 14
• 2015: 18

Adding the three times that Michigan did qualify for the College Football Playoff, the program would have accumulated eight total playoff appearances since 2014.

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