FPI Projects Michigan Football's Final 3 Games: Will Wolverines Go Bowling?

It's been a weekend for Michigan football, and not a good one. The Wolverines lost their first game to rival Michigan State on Saturday for the first time since 2021. Michigan's defense didn't allow a field goal, but the Spartans made five field goals and the Wolverines mustered a late touchdown to fall 15-6 to Michigan State.

Michigan was a two-touchdown favorite entering the game and the Wolverines' offense continues to regress. And on Sunday, Michigan made the decision to fire offensive coordinator Jason Beck, who lasted nine games as the Wolverines' coordinator. Not only was he the highest-paid offensive coordinator, but Michigan is now on the hook for a massive buyout.

Kyle Whittingham is planning on being at Michigan in 2027 and said he will conduct a national search for his next coordinator, but in the meantime, offensive line coach Jim Harding will take over as the interim offensive coordinator for the final three games. So, what are Michigan's chances to win those three games?

What the analytics say

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, left, talks to Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola — USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Harding will be tasked to turn Michigan's No. 132-ranked offense into just a mediocre offense, and if he can do that in a week's time, it's possible the Wolverines win one of the last three games to make a bowl game.

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Here's what ESPN's FPI says about the Wolverines' next three games.

At Oregon: Michigan's chances of winning - 14.1%
Vs. UCLA: Michigan's chances of winning - 51.3%
At Ohio State: Michigan's chances of winning - 10.4%

By those metrics, Michigan is expected to barely beat the Bruins, who are currently 9-0 on the season. As for the Oregon and Buckeyes games, Michigan has little to no chance of winning, according to the advanced analytics.

Oregon is coming off two big wins in a row, beating both Northwestern and Ohio State. The Buckeyes have fallen apart since losing quarterback Julian Sayin. Ohio State lost by 12 to USC and then was blown out by Oregon this past weekend in Columbus.

Michigan's defense is good enough to keep it in the game in all three games, but it will come down to the offense. As of now, it appears Michigan will stick with Tommy Carr, but Kyle Whittingham admitted they talked about Bryce Underwood in the game for the third quarter against Michigan State. However, the offensive coaches wanted Carr in the game, and that's who Michigan stuck with.

Michigan is set to play Oregon this weekend at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

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