Josh Pate says 'the wrong team is favored' in Michigan-Nebraska game

The well-known CFB analyst is predicting a slow start for the Wolverines in Big Ten Play

Sep 13, 2025; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Justice Haynes (22) receives congratulations from offensive lineman Greg Crippen (51) and wide receiver Donaven McCulley (1) after scoring in the first half against the Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

No. 21 Michigan football (2-1) stands as a 2.5-point favorite at the midway point of the week heading into its Big Ten opener against the 3-0 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

On one hand, Michigan needs this win to re-establish themselves as a potential Big Ten and College Football Playoff contender. On Nebraska's side of things, the Huskers are eager to announce they have arrived under Matt Rhule, and a win against the Wolverines would help convince many that they have taken the next steps as a program.

College football analyst Josh Pate broke down and made a prediction on the game on his show, proclaiming that it should actually be Rhule's team that should be favored while picking Nebraska to pick up a big win.

Pate made his decision with the help of the "Pate State Model," which is his own analytical computer model that ranks college football teams and generates which teams should be favored based on its data.

"The model would like me to deliver the following message to you," Pate said. "The wrong team if favored in this game. And the model says it, and you know what? I agree with it. Nebraska is going to win this game outright. The "Rhule Rule" is real and Nebraska is going to get that signature win—and they're going to announce their arrival in the Big Ten. Dare I say they're going to announce their arrival in the College Football Playoff picture? I should have whispered that, I should not have said it out loud. Give me Nebraska outright."

Sep 13, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers wide receiver Cortez Mills Jr. (19) runs for a touchdown against Houston Christian Huskies cornerback Jaden King (17) during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

The "Pate State Model" has Nebraska as a three-point favorite over the Wolverines.

Generally, analysts who pay attention to college football are largely split on the outcome of this game in what is expected to be a tight one either way. The Wolverines and Huskers will kick off at 3:30 p.m. EST in Lincoln on CBS.

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