ESPN: Four Big "Ifs" Surrounding Michigan Football Heading Into 2020

Michigan is one of 18 teams with title odds better than +10,000 per Caesars Sportsbook. There are definitely some "ifs" surrounding the 2020 version of Michigan's team and, according to ESPN staff write Bill Connelly, four of them stand out more than any others.

Michigan is usually talked about during the preseason as a potential contender if things go their way and 2020 doesn't look any different. Let's see how Connelly did at identifying the "ifs" surrounding U-M as the summer approaches.

If ... 2021 arrives early. Jim Harbaugh doesn't share depth charts, but if he did, you'd notice something pretty quickly about 2020's: almost no seniors. There might be only five or six senior starters and almost no final-year backups. The Wolverines' returning production figures will therefore skyrocket next season, but this season will see a young cast of characters.

That's not to say there's not talent. From running backs Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins to offensive tackle Jalen Mayfield to linebacker Cameron McGrone and safety Daxton Hill, the sophomore class alone is loaded with difference-makers. But they'll need to mature at mach speed for the Wolverines to break through. Harbaugh's next big swing is probably a year away.

My Thought

Honestly, the 2021 angle is one I haven't thought about much. It's enough to look at what Michigan has going on this season, especially given the COVID-19 pandemic and potential changes to the schedule.

On that note, Connelly's point is a good one.

When looking at the 2020 roster, Nico Collins and Nick Eubanks are the only offensive starters entering their last year of eligibility and on defense, it's pretty much just Kwity Paye, Carlo Kemp, Ambry Thomas and Brad Hawkins. Guys like Jalen Mayfield and Aidan Hutchinson could possibly be entering their final seasons at Michigan, but 2021 does look like a much more experienced, veteran-led team, at least on paper.

It seems like we've been saying that Harbaugh's next big swing is a year away since he arrived in Ann Arbor but as Connelly points out, the depth chart reflects that sentiment heading into the 2020 season.

If ... a new offensive line jells. Charbonnet and Haskins were brilliant late in 2019 (as was the Michigan offense as a whole), but their degree of difficulty will increase considerably with both a new quarterback (likely either Dylan McCaffrey or Joe Milton) and a new line. Mayfield is the only returning starter, and only two others have seen much rotation time. That's a less-than-optimal combination for sustaining improvement.

My Thought

Connelly's point about the quarterbacks is valid. We don't know who the starter is yet and we really don't know what to expect with either of them.

However, his point about the offensive linemen is a tad misplaced. Along the O-line there are certainly question marks but Andrew Stueber and Ryan Hayes both have starting experience. They're not returning starters per se, but they've played and know what it's like to be on the field for the first offensive snap. Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis recognizes the challenge in finding a starting offensive line but feels pretty good about a group that "only returns one starter."

"When you look at the offensive line, I consider we have three starters coming back," Gattis explained. "We feel like we've got a good nucleus of guys who have played in games and a good group of young guys who have been here for the last year or more. We're going to have a huge competition to find out who the best five are."

If ... Big Game Don Brown returns. The Michigan defense has ranked 11th or better in defensive SP+ in every year of the Harbaugh era; Don Brown remains one of the best coordinators around. But the magic has vanished versus elite offenses. Against Alabama, Ohio State and Wisconsin in 2019 and Florida and Ohio State in 2018, the Wolverines allowed 46 points per game and 7.6 yards per play. Brown's defense is boom-or-bust by nature, but that's a lot of busts. Needless to say, that must change.

My Thought

Man, have we talked about this A LOT.

Brown is a great defensive coordinator but his unit tends to fold like a lawn chair against the best teams on Michigan's schedule. That simply cannot happen if U-M wants to beat Ohio State and finish the season with a W instead of an L.

Exactly one month ago, I made a pretty bold prediction about 2020 being Don Brown's last season at Michigan and this talking point is exactly why. You simply can't beat up on the inferior teams and get walloped by the comparable or better ones. I realize that not many teams beat Alabama or Ohio State, but losing by 20 or 30 points is unacceptable.

If ... the red zone is friendlier. Scoring opportunities were a net loss for the Wolverines, something you almost never see from an otherwise good team. The Michigan offense averaged 4.9 points per scoring opportunity (34th in FBS), but the defense allowed 5.0 (115th). That edge must flip significantly. Last season's CFP teams averaged a plus-1.1-point margin here (including Oklahoma's awful red zone defense), not minus-0.1.

My Thought

This is where I think Michigan can take a big step forward under Josh Gattis. Down the stretch of last season, Gattis' offense started to click. If he can find his rhythm out of the gate in year two at U-M, the dynamic of the entire team could change.

A more efficient offense means a more rested and potentially more explosive defense. It also changes what the other team is thinking and doing. If empty drives or field goals are replaced by touchdowns, opponents start to press and potentially flounder. All of that leads to better numbers than the ones Connelly cited.

Even though Michigan is going to be breaking in a new quarterback, I think that could be a good thing. I see more potential in the offense under Dylan McCaffery or Joe Milton. That's another point we've discussed a lot at Wolverine Digest and something that everyone is anxious to learn about as football return to normal, hopefully sooner rather than later.