REPORT: Michigan State Among the Best Teams in a Crucial Stat
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The No. 14 Michigan State Spartans won key games against Illinois and Purdue to get their season back on track. In both games, they have gone on a decisive “Kill Shot” scoring run to separate from their opponent.
"Kill Shot" is coined by statistician Evan Miyakawa, who describes it as "any time a team goes on a 10-o run or better." In March, a Kill Shot can be the difference between a disappointing first-round exit and a historic Final Four run.
Against Illinois, the Spartans finished the game with a Kill Shot, feeding their hot-hand forward Jaxon Kohler. Kohler was a key contributor in the final eight minutes, where the Spartans went on a 14-0 run to secure the road victory.
Then, Michigan State followed up with another Kill Shot against the No. 13 Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue had a two-possession lead late in the first half until the Spartans flipped the script with a 10-0 run to secure the lead heading into halftime. The momentum from that run carried into the second half, where Michigan State pulled away for a 75-66 win.
Another aspect to be mindful of is how often a team allows their opponent to go on a Kill Shot run.
Time for a "Kill Shot" graph update! A Kill Shot is any time a team goes on a 10-0 run or better.
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) February 19, 2025
The graph shows how many runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇 pic.twitter.com/Hm6DDFzxRc
The Spartans are consistent on the defensive end, allowing only .2 Kill Shot runs per game. Former Spartan guard AJ Hoggard is on the opposite end of the spectrum, as the Vanderbilt Commodores are barely on the graph as they allow the most Kill Shots, at almost one per game.
Miyakawa groups Michigan State into the bubble of "strong teams," with other top-tier programs like Duke, Houston and Florida. These are the teams that often win big games due to a crucial scoring run and also limit the amount of runs their opponents have.
The Spartans' upcoming opponent, the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines, fall into the category of being a "streaky team." The Wolverines go on many Kill Shot runs, with an offense led by forward Danny Wolf, but they also allow their opponents to go on large-scoring runs. The Spartans’ offense can take advantage of this by attacking this vulnerability and capitalizing with big scoring runs of their own.
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