Maryland Poses Threat to Spartans' Big Ten Title Chances

The Michigan State Spartans prepare for another monster contest this Wednesday night as they face a blistering-hot Maryland Terrapins team on the road. Depending on what happens, the Spartans' Big Ten title chances will drastically rise or fall.

Feb 9, 2025; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins guard Rodney Rice (1), center Derik Queen (25), guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie (0), and forward Julian Reese (10) walk to the bench during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images | Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

The No. 8 Michigan State Spartans (22-5, 13-3) are in the depths of a gauntlet schedule to finish the season, preparing for one of their most pivotal games in terms of a Big Ten title. Their road meeting with the No. 16 Maryland Terrapins (21-6, 11-5) will make or break their conference title hopes.

According to Paul Fanson of Spartans Illustrated, a win or loss against the Terrapins will either greatly increase or greatly decrease their chances of winning a conference title this season. The graph that Fanson created features multiple possible scenarios for how the next few days will play out.

Here is another update based on the "what if" of MSU and UM's games this week.

The four possible outcomes all have similar odds. In the best case scenario, MSU's odds go over 90% and Michigan's go to 20%.  Even in the worst case scenario, MSU's odds remain over 50%. pic.twitter.com/PqZ98plchz

— Dr. Green and White (@PaulFanson) February 24, 2025

Monday night featured a crucial win for in-state rival, No. 12 Michigan (21-6, 13-3), beating Nebraska and tying the Spartans for the top spot in the Big Ten standings. Due to their victory, the Spartans need a win of their own to stay ahead, but also to continue being the favorite to win the conference.

Fanson's data set shows that the Spartans will have an 80% chance to win the Big Ten crown if they were to beat Maryland on Wednesday. A loss drops their chances to 57%, giving the Wolverines the upper hand with a 69% chance to win it.

Wednesday night will prove costly for the Spartans' chances to win their first Big Ten title since 2020 as a four-team race is getting more contentious by the day. The Wolverines, Badgers, and Terrapins have more favorable schedules, but Michigan State controls their own destiny down the stretch.

Maryland is entering the contest on a four-game win streak, winning eight of their last nine games. There is no doubt they are playing their best basketball, but the Spartans are doing the exact same thing. A third-straight top-20 win brings this team one step closer to a monumental achievement.

Dating back to the 2019-'20 season, the Spartans were in a very similar scenario at the end of the year. They were 9-6 in conference play, essentially needing to win the remainder of their games to become conference champs. Their final five games featured four Top 25 conference opponents.

To win their most recent conference title, the Spartans ripped off five straight wins, including a dominant win over then-No. 9 Maryland. They went on to finish 14-6 in Big Ten play, winning the title. With the Terrapins on the horizon, a similar situation may be manifesting five years later.

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