Final Predictions for Michigan State at USC

The grind of the Big Ten schedule is about to begin for Michigan State. It begins with a tough one, as the Spartans (3-0) head out to the West Coast to take on No. 25 USC (3-0, 1-0 Big Ten).

MSU hasn't been tested quite like this yet this season, so Saturday's game will be a big litmus test to see what kind of expectations people should have for the rest of the season.

That being said, Michigan State is certainly the underdog in this matchup. The Spartans went 0-3 against ranked opponents last year and have lost their last eight matchups against Top 25 teams. USC has won six straight home contests against unranked teams.

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans running back Waymond Jordan (2) runs the ball during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Even though the odds are stacked against MSU and the game favors the Trojans on paper, the game is played for a reason.

On this episode of the Michigan State Spartans Insider Podcast, we break down the matchup, go through MSU's path to a win, and give a final score prediction. Full video of the podcast and a shortened written version of the predictions can be found below.

Watch the MSU Spartans Insider Podcast here:

Predictions

Sep 6, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws a pass during the first half against the Georgia Southern Eagles at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Overall, it's pretty clear that USC is the better, more talented team in this one. The Trojans absolutely demolished both Group of Five teams they played, which Michigan State did not do. USC also got a 16-point win over Purdue on the road, which is probably a better result than MSU's double-overtime win over Boston College at home.

Basically, it would probably not be wise to choose against USC during a game that's in Los Angeles here, especially when it's a night game and MSU's players will be fighting the effects of travel and the absurd 11 p.m. ET kickoff time (seriously, why is that allowed?).

USC Helme — May 1, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; General view of Southern California Trojans football helmet and the Olympic torch at the peristyle end of the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The biggest mismatch in this game will be the Trojans' offense against Michigan State's defense. One big reason for that is that USC is first in the FBS in offensive yardage (604 yards per game) and is second in scoring (55 points per game). MSU's defense just allowed 24 points to FCS Youngstown State and didn't really play great against BC the week prior, either. The Spartan defense did shut out Western Michigan, but, well, that's Western Michigan --- this is USC.

To put an end point on it, I think Michigan State comes out the gate hot --- like they often do --- and makes this thing interesting for a little bit. But the talent differential, the home-field advantage for USC, and the fact that the second half will probably begin at about 12:45 a.m. ET on Sunday morning will wear on MSU, and the final score won't be super close.

Final Score Prediction: USC 41, Michigan State 20

Jordan Hall, Wayne Matthews III — Michigan State linebackers Jordan Hall (5) and Wayne Matthews III (10) get involved in a tackle during a game against Youngstown State on Sept. 13, 2025. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

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