Scouting Report and Prediction: #6 Michigan State 7-1 (4-0) vs. #11 Ohio State Buckeyes 7-1 (4-0)
Scouting Report and Prediction: #6 Michigan State 7-1 (4-0) vs. #11 Ohio State Buckeyes 7-1 (4-0)
A look at this week’s opponent…
The Ohio State Buckeyes are a team much like Michigan that gets a ton of respect because over the long history of college football they have earned the right to be called elite. However, when you take off your Woody Hayes pajamas and look objectively, you see another picture of current reality.
Entering last year’s B1G Championship game, the Buckeyes had a 24-game winning streak. My friend Jim Tressel, before Urban Meyer arrived, had done an amazing job prior to his departure, and Urban was on a roll after arriving. Things are MUCH different since then.
After losing by double digits to the Spartans last season, they proceeded to get rolled by the Clemson Tigers 40-35. Coming into the season, the narrative was that they lost to Clemson out of disdain for not beating MSU and playing for the national title; an excuse, but plausible at the same time.
Since the conclusion of last years regular season has a team fell farther? 2014 continued the falling off since last regular season ended and they lost to the Spartans. An embarrassing loss to lowly Virginia Tech and nearly upset by Penn State (they won in 2 OT 31-24) have the Buckeyes wondering who they are. No, they aren’t saying that, they never do, but I live in Realville and in Realville a much inflated stat sheet against subpar opponents, a brutal loss, and nearly another to a team worse than Virginia Tech tells a different story.
Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes are in desperate need of a win. Make no mistake, Meyer is a very good coach and that roster has a ton of talent, but to win in the High Cathedral of the Spartan Nation: Spartan Stadium, they need the Spartans’ help.
Coach Meyer was very humble when talking about the reality of the two programs this week. “I think we've beaten a bunch of very good teams. But they're the king of the hill right now because they won the championship and you have to dethrone them. “
When MSU has the ball…
The Spartans offense last season could not run for three quarters against the Buckeyes. MSU had to go to the air to establish the run and I think Langford would still be running had the game not ended. It was the Spartans in the fourth quarter that looked more like a Woody Hayes coached team than their beloved Buckeyes.
The same will be true in this tilt. MSU has to be licking their chops looking at the anemic OSU passing defense. Don’t read the stat sheets unless you look at WHO they played. PSU has a good QB and an OK WR group. The Spartans have a great QB in Connor Cook, an elite WR in Tony Lippett, an excellent group of wideouts behind him, and a great albeit underused TE corp.
MSU will have shots to throw the ball. Aggression should be the word of the day. MSU must come out and keep their foot on the gas. A sack is fine; an interception is not. OSU can’t beat the Spartans WITHOUT help. The Spartans must be mindful of that.
Dantonio likes how his offense is playing right now. They can beat a team either passing, running, or balanced. It’s a pick-your-poison type thing when you play his team. Try to take one away (passing/rushing) and they are prolific enough to simply use the other.
He said of how his offense is playing, “I think our offensive line is an improved unit and there is a lot of things that go into running the football, obviously, but whether it's scheme, concept, players themselves, you know, the tight ends, the running backs, all the different things. So there is a lot to be talked about there, the balance of your offense, but I think you have to to be successful you have to do both, you have to be able to throw it and run it. You can't be one dimensional in this game anymore and if you look across the board statistically at them and us, there is a lot of parity and there is a lot of balance. There is parity within each other, statistically, but there is a lot of balance from both football teams, equally balanced run and pass both teams, about 50/50. In a lot of situations that you look at as a defensive coach or offensive coach I think you see a lot of balance.â€
QB Connor Cook thinks that there are some differences between the Buckeyes he faced last December and the ones he will play Saturday, but not much. “It's a little different, depending on the coverages. Last year there was more man coverage, I feel middle field close a lot, cover three and cover six this year you see a lot more open but that's the main difference. They mix it up a little bit with the fronts, trying to go odd fronts here and there, but this year I think you see more four man front, four three, pretty much but there is just a little custom differences, nothing too major, pretty much just the coverage’s, that's what I would say.â€
The biggest weapon on defense for the Buckeyes is DE Joey Bosa. A J.J. Watt type player, he will be an NFL All Pro one day and his head to head matchup with Spartan LT Jack Conklin has NFL scouts drooling over these two prospects. I had one AFC NFL scout tell me this past week, “Bosa vs. Conklin is going to be one worth a ticket. Conklin has a good shot at making a lot of money that night.†I agree.
I asked Conklin about that earlier this week. “Obviously he's a great player, see him this season and last season, he bounces around a lot so the whole line is going to have to be ready to play against him. Obviously, I'm excited to play such a great player.†He continued, “I mean, you come to Michigan State to play the best teams, and obviously I'm excited to play against Bosa and the whole offensive line is excited to play one of the best "D" lines in the nation.â€
Just because the Buckeyes are overrated doesn’t mean that the cupboard is bare. They are VERY young. That said, outside of the Huskers this is the best defensive front seven the Spartans have faced. Captain Travis Jackson addressed that. “They're more into an over front. They got a special front seven. They play a lot like ours and I believe their defensive coordinator was at Wisconsin in 2011 when we faced off against them twice.
You know, we've seen this kind of front before. But, you know, what makes their front seven so special is the players in the front seven, and you got two guys on the side in Bennett and Washington who are guys that are so technically sound and playmakers and you don't see that a lot in defensive tacklers as playmakers, and they have Curtis Grant in the middle, who is a guy who has experience and a good ball player, and a new guy in Lee, who brings so much energy, makes big time plays and say a tough blitzer to block.â€
When MSU has the ball the equation is simple. Use the pass to set up the run. Don’t make bad throws. Interceptions simply help a talented team stay in the game. OSU can’t beat the Spartans without their help. Bad playing calling or bad execution such as turnovers or drive killing penalties keep this dangerous team in the ball game.
You may remember MSU in the Championship game took the lead, got conservative, and they had to turn the jets on again to win. I don’t want to see a repeat of Nebraska or Oregon where the Spartans “Relaxed,†“Let off the gas,†or go from great play calling to pathetic.
MSU is not only playing for the win, but for a birth in the college football playoff. They have not played their best football game as a team yet and they need to Saturday with the eyes of the nation on them.
When MSU is on defense…
The Spartan defense is led by one of the best football coaches in America in Pat Narduzzi. He should be leading a power five school as the head man right now. His leadership on defense has his side of the ball established among the nation’s elite. Meyer had high praise for how he leads his Spartan Dawgs.
“We've seen it all this year. The one thing about their coach and coaching staff, they're pretty set in what they do. They're really good at it. This is not one of the star wars where change of defense every week, and there's the inherent problems with that when you face a team that changes, changes, changes, because you're not really quite sure. But we have to be ready for adjustments. They won't change their defense because they're too good. It's the ones that maybe are struggling on defense or come up with something. But they'll have a little wrinkle here and there that we have to be ready for. That's why we're watching what we did against them last year. And how do you prepare for it? We anticipate and you give them that rep in practice. That's the only way to do it.â€
J.T. Barrett is not as good of an athlete as Braxton Miller, but he is a better QB in the Urban Meyer scheme. He is dangerous and has the Spartans concerned because of what he can do that Miller can’t.
Dantonio said of Barrett, “I think J.T. is a little bit more plays a little bit more controlled like a quarterback. He's throwing the ball very effectively. Minimum amount of interceptions, high percentage, and I think that's probably where the difference is. I also think that J.T. is a very good runner as well and he's a different type of runner, he's more of a run through you type of guy, power runner. But they will run him as well and he's got the ability to take bad plays and change 'em, too.â€
Spartan star S Kurtis Drummond sees a lot of things to be concerned about with Barrett and rightfully so. “I think they both are similar, but J.T., you see the way he's grown over the weeks, you see his composure in the pocket, the way he's able to pro long plays, able to make plays with his feet and able to throw the ball down field. When you have playmakers around you, it makes things a little easier but you see J.T. back there composed and making plays for his team.â€
MLB Taiwan Jones went even further. He said of Barrett, “I feel like with this offense that Barrett works better in this offense. I feel like he has a better arm, he's a way better quarterback than Braxton, but I feel like it's a big challenge for us and we're actually looking forward to it and working this week in order for us to be successful against this offense.â€
Current Buckeye offensive assistant Tim Hinton worked for Dantonio at Cincinnati and is a great friend of the Spartans’ head man. He also knows Narduzzi well and knows exactly what to expect from the Spartans. “It's a good football team and they're a well coached football team. They know their stuff very well. It's a staff that's been together for a long time. They know their system. They know what they're going to do, and our job is to execute a game plan really flawlessly.â€
If OSU beats the Spartans I have said it a lot already, but I will reiterate it again: They need the Spartans help. MSU will take away the run, but Barrett is a superior passer to Miller and he is dangerous. A busted coverage or a dumb penalty helps OSU keep drives alive. Big plays won’t kill the Spartans from the Buckeyes. Big plays enabled by dumb mistakes will. The Spartans will be just fine against the Buckeyes, IF THEY DON’T HELP THEM.
Intangibles…
In games like this there are a lot of them. Guys can get emotionally spent after a week with the build up like this one has had. They can come out flat trying to NOT be spent. 8PM start, Gameday on site. All of that play into it. Let me give you the biggest intangible.
The Spartans are a better team. Period. The Buckeyes are young, but have the potential to be great. They have the chip on their shoulder. MSU has to embrace and handle expectations. They are the team in the running for the College Football Playoff.
They are the top ten team highly ranked in the playoff poll. They are the defending champs of the conference and the Rose Bowl. They were the top three team last year. I want to see the Spartans come out and win the game. At Oregon you had the long road trip, it was early in the season, and numerous reasons that I wrote about at the time as to why they could lose and be right where they are today.
That can’t happen in this game. Spartan expectations are a Big Ten title and a berth in the playoff. Period. I want to see how MSU embraces those expectations on the game’s biggest stage. 8 PM nationally, Gameday in town and do they take care of business like great teams do or do they wilt. I think the biggest intangible is how the Spartans deal with being the hunted; the better team, the squad everyone wishes they were. We shall see. A win Saturday night says more about this team between the ears than it does just on the win loss record.
Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, this game is over. For those who don’t remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus four for the day. They want to get to a plus five ratio at least every game.
Prediction…
I like Urban Meyer’s ability to coach and accumulate talent. I don’t like how he uses pressure to lead his coaches and players. I Tweeted last year PRIOR to the B1G Championship game about how Dantonio was relaxed and Meyer and the Buckeyes were uptight. Frankly, they played that way. I think Meyer is feeling the pressure to be what he WAS at Florida and he is passing that down the line.
I think the Buckeyes feel that. They see the film. They know the Spartans are better and they will press. I think Michigan State finally makes a national audience take notice that they are not only comfortable on the big stage, but that they belong there.
MSU minimizes the mistakes and I say MSU wins this 28-17.
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