Scouting Report and Prediction: #7/#6 Michigan State 8-0 (4-0) vs. Nebraska 3-6 (1-4)

Scouting Report and Prediction: #7/#6 Michigan State 8-0 (4-0) vs. Nebraska 3-6 (1-4)

A look at this week’s opponent…

The Spartans are playing in the much respected Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska. College or pro, that place is the MECCA of football. This place for as far as the eye can see becomes a prairie, a total sea of red with some of the most amazing fans anywhere that add to making this place tough for anyone.

It took until 2013 for the Spartans to finally win a game here and even when the Huskers aren’t performing at a level they once were, the environment and entire atmosphere make this place formidable.

MSU head coach Mark Dantonio said of playing the Huskers here in Lincoln, “Great challenge and opportunity waiting for us at Nebraska. Tremendous tradition there… I have a great respect for what they do and what their fans bring and how they do it at the University of Nebraska.”

Coach Mike Riley of the Huskers has great respect for his friend Mark Dantonio saying about the Spartans’ leader, “Michigan State is a really solid football team. I’ve known (Michigan State head coach) Mark (Dantonio) for quite a while. As a matter of fact, a few years ago, him and his staff came out and we spent a couple days visiting with each other, football stuff, on our (Oregon State) campus. So I’ve known him for a while. He’s got a really solid program that’s been built up over time.”

This Husker team has great coaching and some great kids. They have been hurt by lack of depth from what Pelini left them in some key spots and with injuries, but just like MSU in 2012 who lost FIVE games by 13 points or less, that doesn’t mean they aren’t dangerous.

I have said since BEFORE the season that this is the #1 trap game for the Spartans to be on upset alert about and I still maintain that. This is a difficult place to perform.

When MSU has the ball…

Against the 120th ranking rushing D in Indiana, MSU allowed them to stack the box for 3 ½ quarters while MSU stubbornly stuck to the rushing game. I love the rushing game, but when it is dead you use the pass to set up the run.

If MSU comes out and sticks with the plan of run run run and then let Connor Cook bail us out in the fourth quarter, they will be on HIGH UPSET alert. The Huskers are thin and are unable to shut Connor Cook down. MSU must ride their 1st round NFL QB to open the running game and leave here with a win.

Michigan State has not had their starting offensive line back together in 30 quarters. They do now and that is real big for MSU. Dantonio said of having everyone back, “Our offensive line is experienced. When we're all sitting there all together, we're experienced. They've played together for quite a while. So hopefully that pays dividends. It should pay dividends.”

Coach Riley has a lot of respect for the Spartans and the way they can move the football. “Offensively, I think they’re a team built on balance, but with a real threat with a great quarterback, a very, very efficient quarterback and a receiver that’s leading the league, (Aaron) Burbridge with 52 catches right now. So that’s an issue there, but they’ve got big running backs, they’ve got good balance and it’s a physical football team. I think that one of their most impressive stats, you just look at the top of the rankings and look at the top of this stat, you see kind of the same teams and their turnover margin is plus-10, so that’s who they are.”

Riley said specifically about Connor Cook, “I’ve said that the balance that Michigan State has is a tough thing to deal with. They’re going to run and throw and they have a really good quarterback to throw it with. Very efficient, smart and old. Those are all valuable parts. What we have to do is we have to be very sound. That’s something that we weren’t necessarily the other day. We gave up a couple of huge plays that made big, big differences in the game. Hopefully we help the defense better by not turning the ball over and not giving Michigan State opportunities that they don’t need because they’re pretty darn good. We just have to play really sound, good defense, be in good position and we have to be ready to challenge some good receivers.”

Make no mistake, I think MSU can run on Nebraska BUT NOT with the box stacked. They have two of the best DL in the nation and if IU can hold MSU at bay so can the Huskers. Pass to run is the game plan here.

Nate Gerry is one of their DB’s, their best one, and MSU wanted him BADLY in recruiting. He is a star that Cook needs to keep an eye on. He is versatile, smart, and plays the game like chess match. He is an elite tier DB.

When MSU is on defense…

Simple: PRESSURE. If Armstrong can get passes away, the Huskers can catch them. Ironically it is Husker Nation upset that Big Red hasn’t ran more, but against MSU the key will be the ability to get the ball off and using the run as a balancing act.

Husker head man Mike Riley looks at the defensive unit of MSU and the philosophy that guides them with great respect. He says, “They’ve got a real identity defensively, 4-3 defense, quarters coverage team. Good defensive line, that’s an outstanding characteristic of this defense right now. #89, (Shilique) Calhoun is their sack leader, tackle-for-loss leader, but they’re all solid up front. They’re a good tackling football team, good overall.”

The Spartans must be able to apply pressure on QB Tommy Armstrong as their Achilles heel has been pass defense and the B1G’s most undervalued QB can sling it. Dantonio said of their offensive attack, “Offensively, when you look at Nebraska right now, I think things center around the quarterback situation, so Tommy Armstrong is obviously an effective guy that's been playing for a long time. Throws the ball very effectively. Can run it.”

One of their best players ON and OFF the field has the eyes of the Spartans as well. Jordan Westerkamp is everything that is right about college football. A class act young man. He has Dantonio’s eye for sure as he does others. “They've got a collection of wide receivers. Westerkamp is a guy that's been playing quite a while, an expert player, gamer. Stanley Morgan, No. 8, is a true freshman to get the ball to him. They've got four or five guys to make plays for him at the wide receiver position, and they seem to play them all. You certainly have to know where number one is at. There is no question.”

Intangibles…

Remember the rule of five. If MSU wins that, this game is over. For those who don’t remember it, it has to do with sacks and turnovers. If the Spartans have three sacks and give up two that means they are plus one. If they then get four turnovers and give up only one that means they are plus three. That would give them a plus four for the day. They want to get to a plus five ratio at least every game.

With the changes in Lincoln it takes time. The once proud program was toxic under Bo Pelini. Riley inherited a program that had nine wins a year, but Pelini wasn’t fired for nine wins, he was fired because of the toxicity of the program and the long term viability was disastrous.

Dantonio talked about the task ahead of Mike Riley, “Obviously, when there is change, you start to redevelop your program. When there is change, you're always going to step back before you step forward. There is always going to be that, I don't think without question. That's going to happen. So we went through our problems as we move forward, and it's always going to be challenging.” He then added the obvious that some in Lincoln are ignoring in year one of the Riley regime, “College football though is very difficult to win. I don't care who we play. It's extremely difficult to win. You can talk to anybody at anyplace and they're going say the same things. Any head coach is going to say the same thing. It's difficult to win, period.”

Extra Point…

When Mark Dantonio arrived at MSU he said he wanted to do things like legendary Nebraska head man Tom Osbourne. He has. Nebraska is looking in the mirror at reflection of themselves and they still see what they used to be and want to get back. I love that passion. I said the same things about MSU when the JLS era was coming to an end and people said I was nuts.

Dantonio talked about the long rebuilding road the Huskers face, “I think Coach Osborne developed a culture there. They had a system in place of what they ran at that point in time, option football, G-option football defensively, offensively. They had almost unlimited resources in terms of football players because of the way non-scholarship players were set up. So they had an overabundance of players.” He continued, “They used to say that you could go in there and they had three different -- almost three different teams working. You'd go to this station and they'd run these type of plays. Then you'd go to this station and run these types. They'd just rotate. They had ones, two and threes rotating. They had scout-teamers for all of them.” He concluded with, “Now that may be hearsay, but that's what I heard. So everything was a lot different back then. College football in general, there is a lot of parity now in college football, and things have changed in terms of numbers and things of that nature, in terms of numbers of players and that type of thing. More parity.”

Prediction…

I think MSU has learned their lesson. I do not expect them to come out and throw 80 times but they will have more balance, although I bet still more stubborn than I like. If I am right that they have learned a lesson, that is a death sentence to ANY team left on the schedule MSU wins 35-27!