Breaking Down MSU Hockey's NCAA Tournament Path, Game vs. UConn

The biggest hurdle that Adam Nightingale has yet to clear at Michigan State is the NCAA Tournament.

In just four years, he's already won three regular season Big Ten titles and two conference tournament championships. But that hasn't translated into the national tournament. MSU lost to Michigan during hockey's Elite Eight two seasons ago and was stunned in the final seconds by Cornell in the first round last season.

Michigan State's Trey Augustine in the crease for a game against Minnesota at Munn Ice Arena on Friday, Jan. 23, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

Putting a Frozen Four or national title banner up in Munn's rafters is the next step of Nightingale's rebuild of Spartan hockey. On Sunday afternoon, Michigan State received the No. 3 overall seed in this season's 16-team field.

MSU is headed to Worcester, Mass., to take on UConn on Thursday (1:30 p.m. ET) in the first round this year. The Huskies were the very last at-large team to make this year's field, standing at 20-12-5 on the season. A win there would advance the Spartans to face either Dartmouth (region's 2-seed) or Wisconsin (region's 3-seed).

The Path for MSU

Michigan State and Minnesota wear 'DS' patches in honor of the late hockey staffer Dan Sturges during the third period in the game against on Friday, Jan. 23, 2026, at Munn Ice Arena in East Lansing. Pictured is MSU's Charlie Stramel, right, and Beckett Hendrickson. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For MSU to reach Las Vegas and the Frozen Four for the first time since it won the 2007 national championship, it needs to find itself in better form than it has been lately. Michigan State has gone just 1-2-2 over its last five games, most recently losing at home to Ohio State (a team that missed the tournament) in overtime during the Big Ten Tournament semifinal.

The other concern is simply rust. MSU will have played just one game, that loss to OSU, over the 19 days before the first-round battle with Connecticut. Over that same span, UConn has played four times, including a game on Saturday.

Feb 25, 2025; Storrs, CT, USA; UConn forward Joey Muldowney (8) looks for an opening against Boston University during the second period at Toscano Family Ice Forum. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

That just counts as an excuse if Michigan State loses, though. The Spartans, boasting Hobey Baker Award finalists Charlie Stramel (forward) and Trey Augustine (goalie), are still a more talented team than the Huskies. The natural randomness of hockey and the fact that UConn is still ranked 14th in the nation on the NPI still should make one nervous, though.

As for those potential second-round opponents, Dartmouth is sixth in the NPI, while the Badgers are 12th. Dartmouth won the ECAC tournament with a 4-0 record during the event. The Big Green also only allow 2.06 goals per game (fourth in the country) with a penalty kill rate of 89.5% (second in the nation). MSU has already faced Wisconsin four times this season, going 2-2-0, but sweeping the most recent series in Madison.

Michigan State forward Porter Martone (22) celebrates scoring a goal against Michigan during the first period of Duel in the D at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit on Saturday, February 7, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images