Predicting MSU's Chiles' Stats Against Bitter Rival Michigan

Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles must be sharp if the Spartans want to upset rival Michigan.

Oct 26, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive end Cameron Brandt (91) pressures Michigan State Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles (2) in the second half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles got his first taste of the rivalry with Michigan last season, and it tasted sour. 

The Spartan quarterback played well in the game, but the team did not make enough plays on either side of the ball to take care of business against the Wolverines, leading to an avoidable loss. 

This year, MSU, on a four-game losing streak and trying desperately to stop the bleeding, gets its rivals at home. Chiles knows the magnitude of the rivalry at this point, and he wants to bring the Paul Bunyan Trophy home. 

What kind of performance will Chiles have against the rival Wolverines tonight? Let’s predict what his stat line might look like. 

Completions: 63 percent (19/30)

Michigan State's Aidan Chiles warms up before the football game against UCLA on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chiles had a bounce-back game against Indiana last week, even if the team did not put more points on the board than in the poor outing against UCLA. 

He was efficient against the Hoosiers, completing nearly 82 percent of his passes for 243 yards and a touchdown. MSU did not have much of a shot in the game, but it was encouraging to see Chiles play as well as he did. 

He will find open receivers, but force a few balls into bad spots. His completion percentage will drop, but he will remain largely efficient. 

Yards: 239 

Oct 18, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles (2) warms up prior to the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

MSU must focus on throwing the football against the Wolverines’ defense, so Chiles should put the ball in the air several times. 

The Spartans’ receivers should get open against Michigan’s secondary, and Chiles, who has improved tremendously at reading the field, should find them for big gains. This game is primed for Chrishon McCray and Nick Marsh to perform well. 

While he won’t have the performance he had last week, it is not difficult to imagine him coming close to replicating it against a defense that isn’t as good as Indiana’s. 

Touchdowns: 2

Michigan State's Aidan Chiles throws a touchdown to Michael Masunas against Boston College during the second quarter on Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If MSU is going to win the game, it will be because Chiles puts the offense on his back. 

Chiles will connect with Marsh and Jack Velling throughout the game, finding each pass-catcher in the end zone in critical moments. It is hard to predict when those moments will happen or the game flow, but he will throw touchdowns to them. 

If the Spartans move the ball and finish drives, the defense will find some confidence, and MSU could be primed for an upset. 

Bonus: Chiles runs eight times for 40 yards.

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