Analytics Won't Ease Michigan State Football Fans' Concerns
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Michigan State may be facing another uphill battle for bowl eligibility.
ESPN recently released its computerized preseason projections for the 2026 college football season from its Football Power Index (FPI). If the rankings are any indication, there is a chance it could be another long season for the Spartans:
Basics of ESPN's Projections
The basic thing is that FPI doesn't think that MSU will make a bowl game this season, which would be the fifth year in a row for the program, and it may not be all that close. Michigan State's projected record at the moment is 4.6-7.4.
That leaves only a 32.7% chance for the Spartans to get to that six-win plateau and make a bowl game. If you're the really optimistic type, FPI gives MSU a 0.7% at making it to the 12-team College Football Playoff.
ESPN's model actually thinks Michigan State has regressed a bit this offseason. The Spartans finished the 2025 season with a +0.8 rating, despite going just 4-8. MSU's rating is now just +0.3 entering the season. The only other Big Ten teams rated lower are Rutgers (+0.2) and Purdue (-0.9).
Michigan State is also considered the favorite in only three of its games right now. Two of those games are MSU's "buy" matchups against Toledo and Eastern Michigan in Weeks 1 and 2. The only Big Ten matchup favoring the Spartans is the home game against Northwestern on Oct. 17.
Game-By-Game FPI Odds of Victory
Sept. 4 vs. Toledo: 65.4%
Sept. 12 vs. Eastern Michigan: 90.7% (season-high)
Sept. 19 @ Notre Dame: 3.2% (season-low)
Sept. 26 vs. Nebraska: 32.1%
Oct. 3 @ Wisconsin: 30.7%
Oct. 10 vs. Illinois: 38.0%
Oct. 17 vs. Northwestern: 52.6%
Oct. 24 @ UCLA: 37.6%
Nov. 7 @ Michigan: 11.8%
Nov. 14 vs. Washington: 32.9%
Nov. 20 vs. Oregon: 6.9%
Nov. 28 @ Rutgers: 44.0%
More Takeaways From FPI
Going off the computer rankings, that season opener against Toledo may be a lot more important than people think. MAC schools are supposed to be relatively easy opponents, but these rankings suggest Toledo could be a real challenge for Michigan State. The Rockets, despite having a new coach themselves, are the highest-rated team in the MAC.
Still, the fact that Toledo's 34.6% chance of victory is higher than MSU's in six of its games certainly doesn't exactly inspire much optimism. Not being a significant favorite in any conference game is another thing in itself.
The Spartans didn't even draw a particularly difficult Big Ten schedule this year. They only play two of the seven best teams in the conference this season, at least according to FPI. One of those top-seven teams is Michigan, a rivalry certainly worth protecting. Notre Dame is also an important rivalry, but scheduling the Fighting Irish is much more voluntary, and MSU will be an overwhelming underdog when it goes into South Bend in Week 3.
Overall, this probably isn't the year to expect a total turnaround. Michigan State isn't really in a position to rush Pat Fitzgerald's process, anyway -- it's going to be paying about $30 million in buyout money through the 2030 season to Jonathan Smith.
Program revivals can happen quicker these days with the transfer portal, but by hiring Fitzgerald, a more old-school coach with a more old-school roster-building philosophy, MSU should probably be willing to accept a slightly longer process. Frankly, that's how I felt about Smith as well, but things were dire enough during the 2025 season that moving on was in Michigan State's best interest.
What MSU's Path to Bowl Could Look Like
So, how could the Spartans potentially end their bowl drought this fall? Well, the non-negotiables are probably those three games where Michigan State has a >50% chance of victory. What absolutely must happen, though, is a 2-0 start against Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Losing to a MAC team, even perhaps a good one, is still humiliating. Especially with that game against Notre Dame coming up after it, it would be an early-season stumble nearly impossible to overcome.
MSU will have to find three, perhaps four, wins somewhere else. Losing that Northwestern game is survivable, though that type of loss would probably be tough for Fitzgerald individually. The good news is that a good chunk of the schedule is winnable. Michigan State should have a fighter's shot against Nebraska at home, Wisconsin on the road, Illinois at home, Washington at home, and Rutgers on the road.
You never know what could happen in The Big House. What if Oregon sleepwalks into East Lansing for a Friday night game that is sandwiched between games against Michigan and Washington? The goal in the Big Ten is probably a 4-5 record. There are no easy wins on the conference schedule, but getting four victories in nine tries is not an impossible task.
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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