Analyzing Spartans' NCAA Standing Ahead of Penn State Series

Michigan State hockey is headed into a massive series against Penn State this weekend, but with only so many weekends left, now is starting to become a good time to peek at the team's NCAA Tournament future.

Ranked second on the NPI (NCAA Percentage Index), which is used to award at-large bids and seed the tournament in March, MSU is basically a lock to make the 16-team field this year. Because no committee or selection group fills out the tournament, but rather a publicly-available computer ranking, it becomes pretty easy to determine the Spartans' projected draw. Recently, USCHO.com, which releases the most-respected college hockey poll every week, did the work for everybody.

Where MSU Currently Stands

Michigan State's Sean Barnhill chases the puck during a game against Minnesota at Munn Ice Arena on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026. | Starr Portice, Michigan State Spartans on SI

The way things stand right now, MSU would most likely open up its NCAA Tournament run with a game against 15th-ranked Connecticut. It wouldn't be a super safe assumption to say Michigan State would advance past that point --- the Spartans were upset by Cornell in the first round of last season's tournament

But if Michigan State were to avoid its mistake from last year, it would then face either No. 7 Providence or No. 11 St. Thomas. Normally, 10th-ranked Wisconsin would be in MSU's region, but because of some first-round matchups pitting two teams from the same conference elsewhere, the Badgers got moved around.

USCHO.com also projects this to be in the region that is played in the Worcester, Mass., region. If the Spartans play there, it will end up playing at the DCU Center, which holds about 12,135 people for hockey.

Things also get really interesting if Michigan State makes the Frozen Four. College hockey's premier event is being held at the T-Mobile Center in Las Vegas, Nev., this coming April. That's the home of the Vegas Golden Knights, with the capacity being listed at 17,500 people for hockey games.

Upcoming Series vs. Penn State

Oct 10, 2025; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions forward Gavin McKenna (72) controls the puck in the first period of a game against the Clarkson Golden Knights at Pegula Ice Arena. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images | Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

Before Michigan State can worry about its NCAA Tournament run, though, it has the Big Ten title chase to worry about. The Spartans are currently in third place in the conference standings, having earned 30 points in 14 Big Ten games, but they are just one point behind Michigan and Penn State for first.

The good part, too, is that MSU will get the chance to surpass the Nittany Lions immediately. Michigan State gets them on the road on Friday and Saturday. No matter how far MSU gets at the end of the season, though, Saturday will be the team's most-attended game. Penn State is hosting that game at Beaver Stadium, where the crowd is going to dwarf anything an arena can offer.

Michigan State's head coach Adam Nightingale looks on during the third period in the game against Ohio State on Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024, at Munn Arena in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

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