Will MSU Be a Surprise Playoff Team?

Teams have come out of nowhere to reach the College Football Playoff. Can Michigan State do it in 2025?

Michigan State's head coach Jonathan Smith looks on during the fourth quarter in the game against Iowa on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Last season, multiple surprise teams came out of nowhere to reach the College Football Playoff. 

We saw teams like the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Indiana Hoosiers appear in the postseason after being picked to finish last in their respective conferences prior to the season. 

To a lesser degree of surprise, the Boise State Broncos also made the CFP. The Broncos have always been a contender in the Mountain West, so seeing them as their conference’s representative was not as shocking. 

The Michigan State Spartans are hoping to become the next team to rise from the basement of the Big Ten and reach the 12-team playoff. Can they do that this season?

Jul 24, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith speaks to the media during the Big Ten NCAA college football media days at Mandalay Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images | Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

Let’s break down what they must do that the previously mentioned teams did to get there. 

To start, all three of those teams had elite run games. Boise State and Arizona State had stars in Ashton Jeanty and Cam Skattebo, while the Hoosiers’ offensive scheme allowed multiple running backs to thrive. 

The Spartans want to see a running back emerge as a star, and they hope the run scheme can take a step forward in Year 2 under Jim Michalczik. He has developed elite offensive linemen and run games at multiple stops in his career. 

Indiana and ASU had high-level quarterback play from Kurtis Rourke and MSU transfer Sam Leavitt. Rourke became a seventh-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft, while Leavitt projects to be one of the top prospects in next year’s class. 

MSU must get that level of play out of Aidan Chiles, who has the talent to be among the best quarterbacks in the conference. He should be more comfortable in his second season in East Lansing, while his quarterbacks coach, Jon Boyer, reunites with him at MSU. 

Will that lead to a star leap from Chiles? 

Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles looks before making a pass against Michigan during the first half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana was one of the best defenses in the country last season. Curt Cignetti brought multiple players from James Madison to Bloomington, and many made a major impact on the Hoosiers. 

MSU must put together a better defensive season this year. It fell apart towards the end of the year, so consistency and health will be major factors. 

The Spartans have some of the pieces in place to make a surprise run to the CFP. Can the second-year boost from Smith and his staff lead them there?

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