Diving Deep into MSU's Heavyweight Rivalry Clash at UM
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There have been 30 games that have led to this point.
Several things seem relatively locked in for No. 8 Michigan State (25-5 overall, 15-4 Big Ten). The absolute worst-case scenario for MSU starts its March Madness run if it gets the 3-seed in the Big Ten Tournament and then another 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. In a vacuum, that’s a pretty good season.
There’s just that rival about an hour away that is having an even better season. Michigan, ranked third in the nation, is 28-2 overall and 18-1 during conference play. When the Wolverines are “on,” they have felt like the most dominant team in the country. Fifteen of their conference victories have been by double figures.
One such win was when UM strolled into the Breslin Center and won 83-71 on Jan. 30. Going into Crisler now and winning is going to be a daunting task for the Spartans, who haven’t lost two regular-season games to Michigan since the 2013-14 season (that team beat the Wolverines in the Big Ten Tournament title game). Here’s a quick preview and then a prediction:
Michigan’s Massive Frontcourt
The size and skill of UM’s frontcourt are a big reason why it has gone from a pretty decent team last season to the Big Ten’s best team this year. Last season’s duo of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin was still good; good enough that they led Dusty May’s first team to a Big Ten tournament title and the Sweet 16.
This year’s trio is even better, with it entirely being built through the portal this offseason. Michigan’s opponents only shoot 43.9% inside the arc this season, which is the fourth-best mark in the country, per KenPom.
Starting at the three is sixth-year UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg. He might be the Big Ten Player of the Year, at 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. His stats would maybe be even better if Michigan weren’t so loaded, but he’ll likely be a first-round NBA draft pick this year, anyway.
At the four is Illinois transfer Morez Johnson Jr., who is also getting first-round pick consideration. He’s a pretty skilled big man for his 6-foot-9 size, averaging 13.5 points per game while shooting 65.3% from the field.
Johnson has also gotten better at stretching the floor lately and is taking some more threes; he made two threes in Michigan’s last game against Iowa on Thursday.
Then there’s the 7-foot-3 Aday Mara, who transferred in from UCLA this past offseason. He was a backup for the Bruins last season, but has ended up flourishing in Ann Arbor. Mara’s size makes it a struggle for him to play super substantial minutes — he only averages 22.7 minutes per game — but he still leads the Big Ten in blocks per game (2.6).
Loss of LJ Cason for UM
These in-state rivals are going without their backup point guards for the remainder of the season. Michigan State lost Divine Ugochukwu to a foot injury after its game at Minnesota, and UM has lost L.J. Cason for the year after he tore his ACL against Illinois.
Sunday will be Michigan’s second game, figuring out how to replace Cason. Starter Elliot Cadeau is still one of the better point guards the conference has to offer. What will be interesting is who runs the offense with Cadeau off the court.
We know it’ll be Denham Wojcik running things (like it or not) when Jeremy Fears Jr. is getting a rest. Wojcik actually provided some decent minutes on the offensive end against Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights are not of UM’s caliber, to put it nicely.
The Wolverines have a couple of other options. It could be freshman Trey McKenney, but he’s not known as a passer. Starting two-guard Nimari Burnett could also pick up the slack, and the same could be said about bench piece Roddy Gayle.
Taking a Guess
Full disclosure: I’ve only picked against Michigan State twice this season. I’m an optimist, what can I say? Those two games have been the home game vs. then-No. 5 Illinois and the game at Mackey Arena against then-No. 8 Purdue. MSU won both of those games, of course.
This will be the third time I take the Spartans’ opponent. The 2025-26 version of Michigan is the most overwhelming squad that has come through this conference in some time. Unless Michigan State hits a bunch of threes like Wisconsin did when it won in Ann Arbor earlier this season, I struggle to find a way where MSU comes out on top.
Final Prediction: No. 3 Michigan 80, No. 8 MSU 68
A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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