MSU's Main Path to Upset Victory over UConn in Sweet 16
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It's been quite some time since UConn has lost whenever its gotten this far in the tournament.
The second-seeded Huskies have won the national title each of the last four times they've reached the Sweet Sixteen round, doing so in 2011, 2014, 2023, and 2024. Michigan State, a 3-seed, is the first team in Connecticut's way this time in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
What's also true, though, is that MSU is the last team to beat UConn in the second or third weekends, taking out the Huskies during the Final Four in 2009 (Connecticut did beat the Spartans in the 2014 Elite Eight, though). Michigan State's Tom Izzo is also 15-12 all-time as the lower-seeded team in March Madness, the most such wins in NCAA Tournament history.
Here's how Izzo and the Spartans can upset another higher-seeded team on Friday (9:45 p.m. ET, CBS).
Containing UConn's Frontcourt (Somewhat)
Priorities No. 1 and No. 2 for Michigan State's defense are the four- and five-men for UConn. Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. are both highly experienced players who are currently playing at an elite level.
Reed had a super gaudy stat line in the first round against 15-seed Furman, dropping 31 points and gobbling up 27 rebounds. He, just like Karaban and Huskies point guard Silas Demary Jr., was named to the All-Big East First Team earlier this month. His dominant presence on the boards will challenge the physical supremacy that MSU is accustomed to having.
Karaban is the guy who presents a matchup problem. He's athletic and operates a lot on the perimeter, which will definitely stretch out the Spartans' defense and raise the question about who will be his primary defender.
Reed is entering Friday averaging 14.2 points and 8.9 rebounds per game, but he's been at 16.2 points and 13.6 rebounds in five postseason games. Karaban averages 13.3 points and 5.2 boards a contest, but has scored 15.6 points a contest during the postseason, including 22 and 27 points during two tournament games.
Offensive Aggressiveness
On the other end, Michigan State needs to take it at UConn, too. The Huskies are prone to fouling more than most. Their defensive free-throw rate (how many foul shots teams shoot compared to field goal attempts) is the highest among all Sweet Sixteen teams, and no one else in the entire tournament this year with a higher rate got anything better than a 12-seed.
MSU already doesn't take a ton of threes, and while the Spartans have been shooting it quite well lately, they can't be too reliant on it. They'll need some three-pointers to win this one, but "make threes" isn't super great analysis. Players like Jeremy Fears Jr., Coen Carr, as well as Michigan State's bigs have to be ready to take it to the rim and challenge UConn there.
A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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