Predicting Michigan State's First Loss of 2026 Season

The Spartans are trying to find a quick turnaround this offseason so they don't disappoint the Spartan faithful as they did last year, hopefully winning more than one in-conference game.

They hope to start the season well this year against their first two opponents, the Toledo Rockets, where they will shake off the rust of the offseason, and the Eastern Michigan Eagles, where they will get to full fighting form.

Michigan State's head coach Pat Fitzgerald calls out to players during spring football practice on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

However, one thing that has been less discussed when looking back at last year is the out-of-conference games MSU played, because it did not lose a single one and started out the season 3-0.

Sure, some of those matchups were shaky, like going into overtime against the Boston College Eagles and allowing 24 points to the Youngstown State Penguins, but they were wins; unfortunately, the team's first loss might come from out-of-conference matches this year, as Week Three has them facing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Why the Fighting Irish Will Be a Challenge

Notre Dame was very close to making the College Football Playoff last year, and while they may not have made the bracket itself, they did play many of the teams that competed within the CFP.

They had a high level of skill, and many of the players on that team have come back for another go, but not on offense. They've lost major players like Jeremiyah Love; it is rather an issue of defense.

MSU, Pat Fitzgeral — Michigan State's head coach Pat Fitzgerald, left, slaps hands with NiJhay Burt during spring football practice on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The aforementioned game against Boston College was far closer than it should have been for MSU, and it foreshadowed the issues to come: they allowed 40 points in the narrow win. T Eagles had a talented roster, yes, but it shouldn't have made that much of an impact.

However, the Fighting Irish allowed only 10 points in their win, which makes it hard for the Spartans to outscore Notre Dame, but that problem may be the Spartans' biggest hope.

The Hope for MSU To Win

While it seems the Fighting Irish may have an edge overall, based solely on similar opponents from last year, there is one thing that needs mentioning: MSU's defense and how it has changed since then.

At the beginning of the year, MSU's defense was sloppy, nothing like what was expected, and in need of a turnaround. That turnaround came partway through the season, and while the team wasn't constantly winning, there were signs of life.

If that life has improved over the offseason, under the leadership of veterans like Jordan Hall, and the Fighting Irish have not figured out their offense because of their recent losses, then MSU stands a better chance to win.

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