Early Predictions for MSU's Week One Contest Against Toledo

The Spartans are on the path to a quick rebuild after winning only one in-conference game all season last year, with new head coach Pat Fitzgerald putting in the work to get his team ready for everything they will face.

He has been able to look at both the players who are overlooked and could propel the Spartans to the next level, as well as the players who are most important to the team, who need help.

Pat Fitzgerald, MS — Michigan State's head coach Pat Fitzgerald calls out to players during spring football practice on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

So, given how everything is going this offseason, it is entirely appropriate to take a very early look at the entire upcoming schedule and predict how everything will go, and it will all start against the Toledo Rockets at home.

How the Spartans Should Play

MSU, Alessio Milivojevi — Michigan State's Alessio Milivojevic throws a pass during spring football practice on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

With everything that the Spartans have been able to do this offseason, it is incredibly easy to say that they absolutely should win this game, and not by a little.

This is because much of their roster from last year, which scored over 40 points on several occasions against non-conference opponents, has returned.

MSU, Brandon Tulli — Michigan State's Brandon Tullis catches a pass in a drill during the football Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 18, 2026, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Furthermore, quarterback play seems to be a better fit for the system Fitzgerald is bringing, as Alessio Milivojevic is one of the better pocket passers MSU has seen lately, at least compared to the athlete Aiden Chiles was.

To top it all off, the Spartans will have a reliable piece in Martin Connington, who can provide consistent points if the offense is rusty and cannot get things going right away.

MSU, Martin Conningto — Nov 29, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Michigan State kicker Martin Connington (29) kicks a field goal against Maryland in the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Mullin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

However, it won't be easy for the Spartans, and if a few things go wrong, they could easily start the season with a heartbreaker.

How the Spartans Could Lose

Michigan State's Ryan Eckley punts the ball against Penn State during the second quarter on Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

While much of the roster is returning, some of the biggest players, such as Nick Marsh, Jack Velling, and Ryan Eckley, have not returned to the team, and therefore, their units have lost part of their identity.

So, as the season starts, it could be messy for a while until the kinks from the losses are sorted out, which could quickly translate into a loss.

But Overall...

MSU, Pat Fitzgeral — Michigan State's head coach Pat Fitzgerald instructs players during spring football practice on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Even if the Spartans struggle to find their identity within their individual units, they should have enough talent to beat the Rockets, and if there were to be a predicted score, it would be a mix of struggle and success, landing at 27-17 in favor of Michigan State. MSU should have no problem beginning the campaign in the win column.

Add us as a preferred source on Google