Preview, Daring Prediction for MSU's Next Test at Indiana
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The period of enjoyment of that Purdue win is long over.
There is another tough game to play, as No. 13 Michigan State (23-5 overall, 13-4 Big Ten) is looking to keep itself on the path for a triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament and potentially towards the 3 seed line in the NCAA Tournament. Sunday’s game against unranked bubble team Indiana (17-11, 8-9) doesn’t have quite the buildup, but there’s still plenty at stake here.
Schedule Dynamics
First things first, the schedule hasn’t really put MSU in the most kind spot. Road games are road games, but the Spartans have only had two days of prep for this game, while the Hoosiers have had four. This type of thing hasn’t ultimately mattered for Michigan State last time out — Purdue had five days’ rest/prep for Thursday’s 76-74 result to MSU’s three — but playing consecutive road games against teams with a rest/preparation advantage can be tough.
It’s up to the Spartans to make it not matter, though. Nobody cares that Michigan State got less rest than the other team. It sounds a lot like an excuse, even if it’s based in more fact than perhaps blaming a loss on poor officiating, for example. All that matters is if MSU can find a way to finish the game with more points on the scoreboard than the team that comes out in candy cane pants.
Contain Wilkerson
Priority No. 1 in ensuring the desired result is keeping the lid on Indiana’s Lamar Wilkerson. This is a guy I would have loved to see the Spartans pursue in the portal last offseason, as Wilkerson was a blistering three-point shooter who can simply go get a team a bucket at will transferring out of Sam Houston State who can play the two-guard spot.
No real smoke ever materialized between MSU and Wilkerson, and he wound up in Bloomington. He’s maximizing his final year of NCAA eligibility, as Wilkerson is averaging a Big Ten-high 23.6 points per game during conference play.
This is the guy IU is going to turn to when it is in a jam. Freshman Jordan Scott is the logical choice for a matchup for Michigan State, as his length at 6-foot-8 provides a counter to Wilkerson’s 6-foot-6 frame at shooting guard.
It will be a slightly different look than what Wilkerson had to deal with when the two teams first met on Jan. 13, an 81-60 MSU win. Divine Ugochukwu started at the two that night, and he’s now out for the season with a foot injury. Wilkerson scored 19 points (6-for-14 shooting), and no other Hoosier even had 10 points.
Desperate Opponent
It’s easy to look at Indiana’s recent performances and be filled with confidence of a Michigan State win. I’m personally going to pick the Spartans to win (check the score below), but there can still be more to it than that.
IU is entering Sunday on a three-game losing streak. The first two of those losses are at No. 10 Illinois and at No. 8 Purdue. Not the easiest places to get victories at, and one that shouldn’t hurt the Hoosiers too much in the NCAA Tournament bubble discussion.
The bad one is a home loss to Northwestern (previously 3-13 during Big Ten play) on Tuesday. With the Wildcats at 69th in the NET, as of Saturday, that game is solidly in Quad 2 territory with real potential to slide to Quad 3. Those types of losses, especially at home, are what can destroy a team’s tourney hopes. Despite that, Indiana is still currently projected to be in on 63/106 brackets on The Bracket Matrix, as of Saturday morning.
Coaches may say they don’t pay attention to that type of thing, which maybe they don’t, but they also are fully aware of where they stand. New Indiana coach Darian DeVries would definitely like to get off on the right foot by making the 68-team field in Year 1, which is probably considered the bare minimum for a program of IU’s caliber.
That’s what can make this game worrying. It’s the type of game with the conditions potentially ripe for an upset. You’ve got the ranked team that’s feeling good about themselves after a big win, and then you’ve got the struggling, unranked team playing at home and looking for a signature win that catapults them into March Madness.
Indiana has a home game against Minnesota and then a road game against Ohio State after this before the Big Ten Tournament. This is the best opportunity left that the Hoosiers know they’re going to get. I expect IU to look like a team playing for its season on Sunday. Whether it will have enough to take down MSU is the question. Right now, I lean towards “no.”
Final Prediction: No. 13 Michigan State 76, Indiana 69
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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