Purdue vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Sunday, March 1

The No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers have lost two of their last three games and are in danger of falling out of the top 10 in the next AP Poll ahead of Sunday’s afternoon matchup with the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Purdue is 22-6 this season, but Braden Smith and company have slipped to fifth in the Big Ten standings. Now, they take on a Buckeyes team that has dropped two games in a row to fall to 9-8 in Big Ten play.

Ohio State has dropped four of its last five games against ranked opponents, including a loss to Michigan State (who beat Purdue earlier this week) late last month. The Buckeyes are likely going to need a big run in the Big Ten tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, but an upset on Sunday would boost their resume in a big way.

Oddsmakers have set Purdue as a 6.5-point road favorite in this matchup, and it enters this game at 6-3 against the spread on the road in the 2025-26 season.

Let’s examine the latest odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Big Ten clash on March 1.

Purdue vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Purdue -6.5 (-112)
Ohio State +6.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Purdue: -305
Ohio State: +245

Total

150.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Purdue vs. Ohio State How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 1
Time: 1:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Value City Arena
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Purdue record: 22-6
Ohio State record: 17-11

Purdue vs. Ohio State Key Player to Watch

Braden Smith, Guard, Purdue

Senior guard Braden Smith entered the 2025-26 season as a Wooden Award candidate, and he’s played well for the Boilermakers, averaging 14.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game (second in the country) while shooting 47.8 percent from the field and 40.5 percent from 3.

Smith is coming off a bit of a down game in the loss to Michigan State, as he scored just 12 points and turned the ball over four times. The Boilermakers will go as far as the veteran guard takes them, and he’s been a key part of their road success in the 2025-26 season.

In nine road games, Smith is averaging 16.0 points per game while shooting 43.6 percent from deep. Can he beat a Buckeyes defense that allows opponents to shoot just 30.7 percent from 3 this season?

Purdue vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

The Buckeyes are 12-3 straight up at home this season, but they have covered the spread in just five of those games, making them a risky bet against a Purdue team that is one of the best in the country.

KenPom has the Boilermakers as the No. 7 team in the land, ranking them second in offense and 26th in defense this season. While the Buckeyes aren’t a bad team – 38th in KenPom – they may struggle against a Purdue squad that shoots over 38 percent from beyond the arc.

Ohio State has a solid 3-point defense (as mentioned above), but it doesn’t shoot the 3-ball well, knocking down just 34.7 percent of its attempts. Despite that the Buckeyes are 36th in the country in effective field goal percentage.

Purdue is 11th in the country in effective field goal percentage, and it makes up for a poor free-throw rate on offense by posting the 11th-best opponent free throw rate on the other end.

The Boilermakers are 7-2 on the road, covering in six of those games this season. After a huge loss to Michigan State, I’m buying Purdue to bounce back on Sunday to give it a chance to remain in the top 10 in the next AP Poll.

Ohio State is not a bad team, but it has not performed well enough against ranked opponents, going 1-7 in the 2025-26 season.

Pick: Purdue -6.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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