Previewing, Predicting Michigan State's Big Test at Notre Dame
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Michigan State will learn a lot about where it stands on Saturday.
The Spartans (2-0) are going to have to go from crawling to sprinting really fast to hang with No. 3 Notre Dame (2-0) in South Bend. MSU has feasted on MAC foes Toledo (30-20 win) and Eastern Michigan (35-7 win) to open its 2026 season, but the Fighting Irish will probably be the toughest task for Michigan State this year.
Notre Dame's First Two Games
Saturday's game (scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock) will mark the second game of Notre Dame's season against a Big Ten foe. The Irish opened up its season with a neutral-site game against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in Green Bay in front of a crowd that looked pretty close to a 50/50 split. Wisconsin kept it close for a half, but Notre Dame dominated late in a 41-13 final result.
The game was basically over before it started against Rice last week. Notre Dame was on the board after the second play of the game when its defense forced a fumble and returned it for a touchdown. Its defense easily stifled Rice's triple option, and "hot knife through butter" would be the best way to describe Notre Dame's starting offense against Rice's defense. The final score was 52-0, and it could've been a lot worse.
When Michigan State Has the Ball
MSU's offense is probably going to have a heck of a time trying to move the ball on Notre Dame's defense. There is a chance of a lot of rain Saturday night, which would play relatively well into the Spartans' anticipated strategy: run the ball, try to do it effectively, and control the clock.
That would be the most obvious game plan if it were 75 degrees and sunny. Notre Dame's extremely experienced group of corners, headlined by 2025 unanimous All-American Leonard Moore, will probably have a big edge against Michigan State's wide receivers, who have struggled to gain separation so far.
This will probably be another game where running back Cam Edwards gets a lot of carries or touches. He leads the Big Ten with 250 rushing yards through Week 2, as do his 48 rushes and 51 total touches. With good health, anything fewer than 20 rushes from Edwards during this one would feel like a pretty big surprise.
Notre Dame's defensive line will have something to say about that, though. The Irish have allowed just 65.5 rushing yards per game through two contests thus far (14th in the FBS), including just 2.02 yards per carry (10th in the FBS). Wisconsin only had 67 rushing yards on 2.16 yards per rush, so those stats aren't inflated from the Rice game, either.
Defensive lineman Bryce Young and linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa are two players to watch in the Fighting Irish's front seven. Young already has 3.5 tackles for loss this season, is a former high 4-star recruit, and is one of Notre Dame's big breakout candidates. Viliamu-Asa is a preseason All-American -- First- or Second-team, depending on where you look. He missed the Wisconsin game, but returned against Rice last week.
When Notre Dame Has the Ball
If Michigan State is to pull off an upset of epic proportions, it's probably going to be during a low-scoring game. Northern Illinois' upset victory at Notre Dame in 2024 was 16-14. Marshall's upset win in 2022 was a little more normal at 26-21, but that Irish defense wasn't as good as the 2024 team's defense or this year's defense.
This is another reason to perhaps root for rain on Saturday. A slog fest with few pass plays means fewer points. Fewer points create more randomness, which is exactly what an underdog wants.
Running the football has been Notre Dame's clear weakness entering Week 3, too. The Fighting Irish rank 116th in the FBS with 114.5 rushing yards per contest. Their 3.58 yards per carry is the seventh-fewest among Power Four teams.
A drop-off was to be expected after losing running backs Jeremiyah Love (third overall pick) and Jadarian Price (32nd overall pick), but this is the thing seemingly causing the most angst in South Bend. Aneyas Williams (119 rushing yards, 2 TDs) and Nolan James Jr. (114 scrimmage yards, 3 TDs) are the top two backs this year. Williams is the workhorse back, but James looks more electric with the ball in his hands and is more of a threat in the passing game.
MSU's rush defense seemed fine in Weeks 1 and 2. The Spartans rank 40th in the FBS at 89.0 rush yards per game allowed so far, but that comes with a couple of grains of salt, as it has happened against a pair of MAC opponents. Michigan State defensive tackles Eli Coenen and Ben Roberts need to turn in good performances during this one.
Notre Dame is going to throw it at some point, though, whether it's raining or it's a clear night. Quarterback CJ Carr, a likely future first-round pick and a Heisman hopeful, is too good. He's already got 492 passing yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions. Carr is elite at taking those short but successful gains immediately post-snap, which helps neutralize opposing teams' pass rushers.
The Fighting Irish's wide receivers aren't elite, but they are still one of the better groups Michigan State will face this season. Former walk-on Jordan Faison is the best of the bunch; he's got 135 receiving yards and two touchdowns in 2026. Notre Dame is also dealing with a few injuries on the offensive line, but not enough for the Spartans to exploit.
Final Thoughts, Score Prediction
Michigan State head coach Pat Fitzgerald is 2-0 in South Bend, winning once as a player and once as a coach at Northwestern. The 1995 Northwestern team's stunning Rose Bowl run began with a 17-15 upset win over then-No. 8 Notre Dame on the road.
Could there be any sort of parallel between those Wildcats and these Spartans? It would be a heck of a story, but no. I think MSU is good enough to keep this thing respectable for a few quarters, but there just isn't enough high-end talent on Michigan State's roster to hang with this Irish team for 60 minutes. Notre Dame will probably grab momentum in the third quarter and not give it up, similar to its game against Wisconsin.
Final Prediction: No. 3 Notre Dame 35, Michigan State 13
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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