Triple Predictions for MSU's Sunday Showdown with Buckeyes
In this story:
We're another day, and about to be another game, closer to March.
No. 15 Michigan State (21-5 overall, 11-4 Big Ten) is going into an interesting contest on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS) against bubble team Ohio State (17-9, 9-6). MSU is coming off a blowout win of UCLA on Tuesday, with the Buckeyes taking down No. 24 Wisconsin that same night.
The Spartans are fighting for positioning in the Big Ten Tournament and in the NCAA Tournament. OSU is just trying to make "The Big Dance" for the first time since 2022.
Let's break down some parts of this game and make some predictions:
MSU has Plan for Thornton
The player Michigan State needs to be careful with is Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton. He averages nearly 20 points per game and just eclipsed the 2,000-point mark for his career during Ohio State's most recent game. He's as experienced as it gets.
MSU has proven that it can contain top point guards, though, especially when playing them in East Lansing. UCLA's Donovan Dent was held to six points (3-for-11 shooting), with four assists and four turnovers. Illinois' Keaton Wagler, who might win Big Ten Player of the Year, shot just 2-for-16 from the field against the Spartans.
MSU Protects the Ball
One of the biggest problems for Michigan State this season has been turnovers. The Spartans average 11.9 giveaways per game, which ranks 14th in the Big Ten. They had 14 turnovers in their last game against UCLA. MSU is also dead last in the conference in turnover rate (18.9%) during Big Ten play.
This is a good game for the Spartans to take care of the ball against a Buckeye team that is middle-of-the-pack at forcing giveaways. Those turnovers were a problem against the Bruins, but Michigan State was in the single digits in each of the three games before that. The worry isn't really with primary ball-handler Jeremy Fears Jr., but with what MSU's big men will do when challenged or double-teamed by the Ohio State defense.
Big Assist Numbers for Fears (Again)
Not the boldest take here, but Fears should be able to rain down some assists in this one. He's averaged 9.3 assists per game this season to lead the nation, but Fears has gotten that number even higher, as he's had 10+ dimes in four straight contests.
With Michigan State's offensive performance against UCLA, it felt like the Spartans may have turned a corner offensively. The supplemental scoring around Fears was there for the first time in a bit. If that continues, Fears should be able to continue to rack up the assists at a historic pace.
Final Prediction: No. 15 MSU 78, Ohio State 66
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A 2025 graduate from Michigan State University, Cotsonika brings a wealth of experience covering the Spartans from Rivals and On3 to his role as Michigan State Spartans Beat Writer on SI. At Michigan State, he was also a member of the world-renowned Spartan marching band for two seasons.
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