Analytics favor Michigan in top 25 matchup with Gophers at the Barn

Minnesota is still looking for its first win over a ranked opponent this season.

Jan 31, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers guard Amaya Battle (3) works around Penn State Nittany Lions guard Ashley Owusu (0) during the first half at Williams Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Big Ten gauntlet continues on Wednesday night for the Gophers, as they will host Michigan at the Barn. ESPN's matchup predictor favors the Wolverines in the game with a 52.1% chance to win according to their own analytical model.

Wednesday's game against No. 24 Michigan will be the Gophers' third game against a ranked opponent this season. They are 0-2 in those games against No. 25 Nebraska in December and No. 8 Maryland last week, but both of those games came on the road. This will be their first chance against a ranked team at home.

After losing to Maryland last Tuesday, Minnesota responded with a win on the road against Northwestern on Sunday and they jumped from No. 24 to No. 23 in the latest Associated Press (AP) Poll. A win against the Wolverines would go a long way as they look to continue to climb the polls and build an NCAA Tournament resume.

Michigan is 13-5 this season with all five of its losses coming against ranked opponents. ESPN projects them as a No. 7 seed in its latest Bracketology and the latest NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings have them as the No. 25 team in the country, so this will be a Quad 1 opportunity for Minnesota.

Former Benilde St. Margaret's star guard Olivia Olson leads to Wolverines in scoring at 15.8 points per game as a true freshman. Three more guards — Syla Swords, Jordan Hobbs and Mila Holloway all average more than 10 points per game. Michigan's 81.7 points per game as a team, ranks 20th-best in the country.

Prediction:

Minnesota's depth will be tested against a Michigan team that can come at you from a lot of different angles. Amaya Battle, Grace Grocholski and Tori McKinney have continued to step up in Mara Braun's absence, but the Gophers backcourt will need to have another big performance on Wednesday night.

The Wolverines' top two scorers are freshmen and they still might be a year away from being a contender in the Big Ten. I think Gophers head coach Dawn Plitzuweit has her team ready to play with a sense of urgency and she picks up her first win over a ranked opponent since becoming the program's head coach.

• Score: Minnesota 74, Michigan 69

Related: Assessing Minnesota's NCAA Tournament resume as Big Ten play heats up