Gophers travel to Penn State with season hanging in the balance

Minnesota's momentum has vanished after back-to-back losses.

Minnesota's head coach Ben Johnson talks to the players during the first half in the game against Michigan State on Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Washington, the Gophers men's basketball team will look to regain some momentum Tuesday night on the road against Penn State. Now sitting in 17th place in the Big Ten standings, Minnesota likely needs this win to keep any postseason hopes alive.

The past three weeks have been a roller coaster for the Gophers. They strung together three straight wins over Michigan, Iowa, and Oregon, making it seem like Ben Johnson and his staff had finally found their rhythm. But that progress quickly unraveled with a 22-point loss to Michigan State and a home defeat to last-place Washington.

Tuesday night’s game in State College, Pennsylvania, is arguably Minnesota’s best remaining chance to secure a road win. The Nittany Lions have struggled themselves, dropping seven of their last eight games. With a 3-8 conference record, ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Penn State a 78% chance of winning.

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Led by veteran guard Ace Baldwin Jr.—who’s averaging 14.1 points, 7.8 assists, and 2.0 steals per game—Penn State is a guard-centric team still ranked within the top 70 in most metrics, making this another Quad 1 opportunity for Minnesota. Second-year head coach Mike Rhoades guided the Nittany Lions to a 12-2 start, but like the Gophers, they’ve since slipped into the Big Ten’s basement.

A tough three-game stretch looms for Minnesota, beginning with a home matchup against Illinois on Saturday, followed by a daunting road trip to Los Angeles to face USC and UCLA. According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, the Gophers have just a 20.5% chance of beating Illinois, a 23.5% chance against USC, and a mere 12.4% shot at upsetting UCLA.

That would make Minnesota’s Feb. 22 home game against Penn State its next matchup with better than a 23.5% chance of winning—ESPN gives them a 45.1% shot. The Gophers’ recent three-game win streak showed they can catch fire, and a win Tuesday night could help build excitement for Saturday’s home game against a ranked Illinois squad. But a loss? That might be another step toward the season spiraling out of control.