Minnesota's Big Ten Tournament chances remain favorable despite two-game skid

After an 0-6 start to Big Ten play, the Minnesota men's basketball team pulled itself out of the conference's basement and won six of its next nine games. After climbing to 13th place in the conference, two straight losses, including a home defeat Tuesday night against Northwestern, have brought the Gophers back to the conference tournament bubble.

After a daunting Los Angeles road trip, the Gophers had two favorable home games against Penn State and Northwestern, but dropped both. They now face a tricky road game against Nebraska, a final home game against Wisconsin, and their regular-season finale will be on the road against Rutgers.

"We have to win every single game, can't sugarcoat anything and be like, 'Oh, you know we got to just come out here and play well.' Obviously we gotta do the things to win, but we got to know we gotta win every single game like our lives depend on it," Dawson Garcia said after Tuesday's 75-63 loss to the Wildcats. "We didn't come out tonight with enough urgency, it's disappointing."

Based on bball.notnothing.net's Big Ten Tournament projections, the Gophers might not even need to win all three remaining games. If the presumed favorite wins every single remaining Big Ten game, Minnesota would be the 15th seed in the conference tournament, earning the tiebreaker over Iowa.

After last night's action, the Gophers would hold the 14th seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Their win over Michigan gives them the tie-breaker over Iowa and Northwestern.

Friday night's game between Northwestern and Iowa will have big bubble implications. https://t.co/yDq83teJJC pic.twitter.com/9a2c4EDQcj
— Tony Liebert (@TonyLiebert) February 26, 2025

Anyone with common sense shold agree that being the 15th seed would be an incredibly disappointing finish to the regular season, but ultimately if the Gophers are able to go even 1-2 in their last three games, their chances of remaining in the conference tourney field are quite high.

The Gophers have a one-game lead on Penn State and a two-game lead on Washington, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker against Iowa, which they are tied with at 6-11 in conference play. They've shown they can compete with the conference's top teams, but they've also struggled against the conference's worst.

"We gotta get back right. If you get right, you give yourself a chance. If you're not right, I don't care. If you're not right — maybe the Lakers can do it because they've got so much talent," Gophers coach Ben Johnson said after Tuesday's loss. "If you're not right, you're going to keep having that stuck feeling. We know what it is. I don't want to put that on our guys even more. I need to work with them to get them back."

NC State made a run in last year's ACC Tournament after finishing the season 17-14 and 9-11 in the conference. As a 10 seed in that conference tournament, the team won five games in five days and made a run all the way to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament.

In the 2020-21 season, Oregon State finished the regular season 20-13 and 10-10 in conference play. After being seeded sixth in the Pac-12, the team made a run in its conference tournament and went all the way to the Elite Eight.

The Gophers have had an incredibly unique season with impressive wins over Michigan, Oregon and UCLA. Every time they've looked checked out, they've responded with an impressive streak. They will have one last chance to do so before postseason play begins.

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