Gophers-Michigan State preview: Players to know, pivotal matchups and a prediction

After last week's 38-point blowout loss to Iowa, Minnesota has a great opportunity to bounce back against a struggling Michigan State team. Latest betting odds from FanDuel Sportsbook view the Gophers as 3.5-point favorites.

Jonathan Smith is on the hot seat

It's only Smith's second year as head coach of the Spartans, and it's hard to ignore his 3-11 Big Ten record to begin his tenure. He inherited a messy situation that was left behind by Mel Tucker, but Michigan State's Big Ten championship teams in the early 2010s under Mark Dantonio feel like a distant memory.

Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith speaks at the post game press conference after 31-20 loss to Michigan at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, October 25, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Michigan State didn't have huge expectations coming into the season. At 3-5 with only two FBS wins coming against Western Michigan and Boston College, it's hard to argue that they aren't performing at least a little below expectations. The Spartans have as good an argument as any to be the most disappointing team in the Big Ten up to this point.

Joe Rossi's return to Minnesota

Rossi was the Gophers' defensive coordinator from 2019 to 2023. He left Minnesota to join Smith's first staff in East Lansing, and it came with a reported $400,000 raise to be the Spartans' defensive coordinator. Michigan State has allowed 32.5 points per game this season, which ranks 119th in the country. Rossi's defense allowed 26.1 points per game last season, which ranked 77th in the country. Saturday will be his first game coaching at Huntington Bank Stadium since Minnesota lost 28-14 to Wisconsin in 2023.

Keys to the game

The Spartans have allowed at least 31 points in every single conference game this season. Their 20.8 points per game offensively ranks fifth-worst among Big Ten teams during conference play. It's hard to find one thing they do exceptionally well.

Aidan Chiles followed Smith from Oregon State to East Lansing, and he has been relatively disappointing at the quarterback position. He has completed 63.1% of his passes for 1,392 passing yards, 16 total touchdowns and three interceptions. Our friends over at Michigan State Spartans On SI floated around the idea of a QB change following a tough performance last week against Michigan.

Michigan State's most promising player might be sophomore wide receiver Nick Marsh, who leads the team with 42 catches for 479 yards and five touchdowns. Many of the Spartans' additions from a busy transfer portal cycle have failed to meet expectations, which has resulted in less-than-stellar results.

Prediction

The Gophers have routinely bounced back under P.J. Fleck following a loss like we saw against the Hawkeyes. Smith and the Spartans look like a team that could be checked out, and this is a game Minnesota needs to find a way to win.

I have not seen anything from Michigan State that would make me believe they can go on the road and win a Big Ten game against Minnesota. The Gophers have at least shown proof of concept with a recent win over No. 25 Nebraska, so I am expecting an improved effort and a comfortable win on Saturday afternoon.

Prediction: Minnesota 31, Michigan State 10

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