Same Story? Analytical Projections Show Familiar Outlook for Gophers in 2026

Minnesota has familiar expectations heading into the 2026 college football season.

Dec 26, 2025; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Drake Lindsey (5) against the New Mexico Lobos during the Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Spring football is in full swing, which means preview season is right around the corner. The Gophers seem to be entering the 2026 season with national expectations that have become the standard under longtime head coach P.J. Fleck.

ESPN analyst Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings have become one of the most well-respected ways to rank every FBS team in the country. He released his spring rankings of 138 teams in the country, and Minnesota debuted at No. 45, which is right in the middle of a range that has become the norm.

Minnesota is the 11th Big Ten team in the rankings, which is similar to its preseason win total that is tied for the 12th-highest in the conference. The top tier of the Big Ten is clearly Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana again. The second tier is USC, Michigan, Penn State, Washington and Iowa. The Gophers are seemingly in the third tier of teams with Nebraska, Illinois, UCLA and Wisconsin.

Connelly's rankings factor in returning production, recent history, recent recruiting and coaching change effects as the four keys. The Gophers are returning their starting QB, top running back, No. 2 and No. 3 receivers and four starters on the offensive line. They're bringing back their offensive and defensive coordinators, but there are a lot of moving parts on defense.

Their No. 45 spot is eight spots below where they were at this point last spring. Each team is given a SP+ number, and Minnesota is currently 5.2, which is 0.8 below where they finished last spring. According to this year's update, Minnesota has the 71st-best offense, 24th-best defense and 125th-best special teams unit out of all 138 FBS teams.

There was nothing from the Gophers offseason that would make anyone think that they will take a huge step back, nor anything that would make anyone think that they will make huge improvements. Their No. 45 ranking seems like a fair expectation for how Fleck has built the program.

The biggest factor in Minnesota exceeding any preseason expectations this season begins and ends at the quarterback position. Drake Lindsey will dictate the ceiling of this team in 2026. If he makes substantial improvements, the Gophers could flirt with the second tier of teams in the conference. If he plays at the level he did in 2025 or takes a minor step forward, Minnesota will likely finish in the middle of the conference once again.