Mississippi State-MLB Draft primer: Interesting facts, three big questions and more

The MLB Draft is set to get underway on Wednesday night. As usual, the draft is set to feature several guys with Mississippi State ties. What follows here is (pretty much) everything you need to know heading into this year's draft including the big questions, some interesting facts and more:

WHERE TO WATCH AND OTHER DETAILS:

The MLB Draft begins at 6 p.m. central on Wednesday with the first round of the event, plus Competitive Balance Round A. It will all be broadcast live on MLB Network and ESPN. Both of those networks will also continue live coverage on Thursday night, starting at 4 p.m. central, as the draft wraps up with rounds two through five. In all, the draft will feature 160 picks. Prior to this year, the MLB Draft was typically a 40-round event. However it was shortened to five rounds this year as a cost-cutting measure because of the ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

BULLDOGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:

On the current Mississippi State roster, three players stand as the most likely to be taken. Those include shortstop Jordan Westburg, second baseman Justin Foscue and pitcher J.T. Ginn. All three of those players are among MLB Pipeline's Top 50 prospects heading into the draft and all three guys have been mentioned as possible first-round picks in various mock drafts in recent days.

It's not totally out of the question that another current Bulldog or two could be drafted among the junior trio of outfielder Tanner Allen, outfielder Rowdey Jordan and first baseman Josh Hatcher. Allen probably stands as the most likely of those three if one is indeed picked.

As for State's signees, two will almost certainly hear their names called this week. Outfielder Austin Hendrick might be the very first player with Bulldog ties chosen in the draft. Nearly all mock drafts predict Hendrick to go around the middle of the first round. Meanwhile corner infielder Blaze Jordan will probably be picked sometime before Thursday is over as well.

A few other MSU signees could be chosen as well, however the guy that may have been the next-most-likely player to be picked – infielder/outfielder/pitcher Kellum Clark – announced on Sunday that he was pulling out of the MLB Draft and indeed coming to MSU. Thus if another signee is picked, it'll probably be pitcher Jackson Fristoe or pitcher Mikey Tepper.

THE THREE BIG QUESTIONS:

1. What will J.T. Ginn do?

Mississippi State head coach Chris Lemonis told Cowbell Corner last Friday that he's expecting Foscue and Westburg to begin professional careers following the draft. So it seems safe to assume those two won't return to the Bulldogs. However Ginn on the other hand could seemingly go either way. Had Ginn not underwent elbow surgery earlier this year, he'd probably be a surefire first-round pick this week, get a big-time signing bonus and go pro. As it stands though, Ginn's elbow procedure could knock him down into the second round or lower and if so, it all likely comes down to how much money he gets offered. And that might need to be a substantial amount. Remember, Ginn has been a first-round pick before and had a chance to pocket a large sum. Back in 2018, the Los Angeles Dodgers chose Ginn in the first round and offered him a reported $2.4 million, but Ginn declined and came to school at MSU. So Ginn has proven before that he won't just settle for the first amount thrown his way. When you consider that, plus how he might could return to the Bulldogs, prove he is healthy, then go higher and get more money in next year's draft, it certainly seems like there might be a path for Ginn to return to Starkville. Traditional logic might say if Ginn gets a healthy offer, it'd be tough for him to turn down life-changing money a second time given his injury history. But Ginn seems to be a guy that doesn't mind taking a risk, so we'll see.

2. Might Blaze Jordan fall in the draft and end up at State?

Blaze Jordan is the signee equivalent of Ginn. It really seems like things could go either way for him. Mock drafts consistently keep Jordan outside of the first round, so if that indeed happens, it's at least possible Jordan might fall to the point where he doesn't get the signing bonus he wants and sees value in coming to school and proving he can be a future first-rounder. For Mississippi State's purposes, the 2021 Bulldog lineup could certainly use someone like Jordan if Foscue and Westburg indeed go pro. MSU will be looking for power bats in its order and that's precisely what Jordan could bring. It might be a mutually beneficial relationship too if that happens. MLB analyst Keith Law of The Athletic says one of the problems with Jordan is that he has trouble getting to his power in game action because of a swing that is all hands. If Jordan could go to school and unlock the full scope of his power at MSU, he could indeed go in the first round in the future. Or maybe, just maybe, he gets an offer he can't pass up this week. It'll be a tough call for a guy who is currently just 17 years old.

3. Could there be a surprise?

As it stands, Foscue, Westburg and Hendrick stand as far and away the three most likely players/signees to start pro careers this week with Ginn and Blaze Jordan as wild cards that could go either way and no one would be completely surprised. But could someone like Tanner Allen get nabbed in the fourth or fifth round and get an offer that simply can't be passed up? It's certainly possible. Here's what to remember though, particularly as pertains to Allen, Rowdey Jordan and Hatcher. The MLB Draft is a game of leverage. If these were typical circumstances and someone like Allen was taken in the fourth or fifth round as a junior, it'd be almost a certainty that player would start a pro career. Because if they returned as a senior, they'd have no leverage to negotiate after next year's draft and would be stuck having to sign for whatever dollar figure a club offered them. These aren't typical circumstances though. All college juniors from this past season will still be juniors next year thanks to the NCAA giving all 2020 spring-sport athletes an extra year of eligibility. That means they'll again have negotiating leverage next year. That means, even if Allen or someone else is taken late in this year's draft, they might go ahead and return to school and try to improve their draft stock heading into the 2021 event. It also at least bears noting that Foscue and Westburg fall into the boat of being juniors again next year too. So if for any reason one of them falls too far, could one of them surprise everyone and come back to school? It doesn't seem likely at all such a thing would happen, but you just never know.

NOTES OF INTEREST:

Does Mississippi State have 15 all-time first round draft picks or 12? It depends on who you ask. On the outfield wall at Dudy Noble Field, MSU boasts of 15 first rounders. According to MLB.com and the NCAA though, only 12 Bulldogs have gone in the first round. So what's the discrepancy? MSU counts Del Unser, Ed Easley and Brent Rooker as first-round choices. Other outlets don't though. That's because Unser was chosen in a secondary phase of the June 1966 draft, while Easley (2007) and Rooker (2017) were both chosen in a supplemental round following the actual first round in their respective drafts. So 15 or 12? You decide.
Using 12 as the number of MSU first-round picks all-time, only 14 other schools in the country have more all-time first-rounders than the Bulldogs according to MLB.com. Those 14 other schools are Stanford (23 first-rounders), Arizona State (21), Texas (19), Florida State (19), Vanderbilt (17), North Carolina (16), USC (15), LSU (14), Cal State Fullerton (13), Fresno State (13), Clemson (13), Rice (13), UCLA (13) and Florida (13).
According to MLB.com (and again using 12 as the number of MSU first-round picks), Bulldog first-rounders have combined for 151.3 wins above replacement (WAR) all-time. In no surprise, it's Thunder and Lightning leading the charge to get to that total. Baseball Reference lists Rafael Palmeiro with 71.9 career WAR. Will Clark had 56.5 WAR.
Since the MLB Draft began in 1965, Mississippi State has had 159 different players selected in the event. Of course, some of those players were chosen more than once, resulting in 208 different times in which Bulldogs have heard their names called.
The 2016 MLB Draft holds the record for most Bulldogs picked. A total of 11 MSU players off that SEC regular season championship squad got chosen that June.
Eight players from the 2012 Mississippi State team have reached the MLB level. That ties the SEC record for MLB players from one team, along with the 2001 LSU squad and 2010 Florida club.