Cowbell Corner Crystal Ball: Predicting Mississippi State-Kentucky

Forecasting the game between the Bulldogs and Wildcats

Let's try this again.

If you're new here, let's just say the Cowbell Corner Crystal Ball hasn't exactly been reliable through two weeks of Mississippi State's 2020 football season. In the opener, we forecasted a two-touchdown MSU loss to LSU. Of course the Bulldogs instead pulled off the upset. Then, a week ago, we prognosticated a lopsided win for State before Arkansas came to Starkville and upended the Bulldogs by seven.

Third time's the charm, right? We'll see.

Today, Mississippi State is in Kentucky looking to get back on the winning track. So how will it play out? Here are three keys to the contest and the Cowbell Corner Prediction.

Will K.J. Costello limit the mistakes? The answer to this question alone might be enough to tell who'll win this game. In eight quarters as Mississippi State's starting quarterback, Costello has turned the football over seven times. He's thrown five picks. He's fumbled the ball away twice. Oh yeah – he's thrown a pair of pick-sixes two. Costello's turnovers didn't cost the Bulldogs down at LSU. Passing for an SEC-record 623 yards gives you some margin for error. However most weeks, multiple mistakes will certainly cost you a game as they did a week ago against Arkansas. So the Bulldogs desperately need a clean game out of Costello today. If he doesn't throw or fumble the ball to the Wildcats, the MSU offense is likely staying on the field racking up the yardage and points. Remember, while State wasn't getting explosive plays against Arkansas, the Bulldogs were moving the football and doing enough to win the game before getting derailed by mistakes. Through two games, it seems the only thing that can totally stop MSU on offense is the Bulldogs themselves, and Costello in particular. Without the errors though, Costello can be one of the country's best signal callers.

Will Kylin Hill be himself? Heading into this week, there was question as to whether or not the Bulldogs would even have their star running back available today after he left last week's game due to injury on the opening series and never returned to action. However head coach Mike Leach said on Monday he'd have Hill at Kentucky and Hill himself was on Facebook Saturday saying he's good to go.

In case anyone was wondering... pic.twitter.com/h6K3glMsYP

— Joel Coleman (@JoelTColeman) October 10, 2020

Assuming Hill is indeed playing and he's his usual, explosive self, that's a game-changer for MSU. He's just such a weapon for the Bulldogs. And while true freshmen Dillon Johnson and Jo'Quavious Marks held their own in Hill's absence a week ago, it was very apparent this Air Raid is missing a critical part of its engine when Hill isn't on the field. Whatever Kentucky's defensive plan is against Mississippi State, Hill makes the Bulldogs much, much more difficult to defend and if he's on the field and anywhere close to normal, well, that's great news for MSU to put it mildly.

Can State's defense limit Kentucky's rushing attack? Kentucky boasts the Southeastern Conference's best rushing offense heading into this week's slate of games. The Wildcats are next to last in passing offense. Translation? The Bulldogs have to make Kentucky and quarterback Terry Wilson try and beat them through the air because, so far, the Wildcats and Wilson haven't proven they have the ability to win games with the pass. So State must shut down (or at least severely limit) the Kentucky ground game. The Bulldogs have so far this year limited opponents to an average of just 71.5 yards of rushing per contest. That's good enough for second-best in the SEC. If MSU can keep the Wildcats in that ballpark today, there's a good chance the Bulldogs leave Lexington with the win.

So how will today ultimately play out? Well after two weeks of making multiple mistakes, it's hard to believe Costello will play a totally clean game today...But it stands to reason he'll be at least a little more careful and limit his errors. If he does that, Hill plays all game and the State defense is simply the solid unit it has been through two weeks this year, it feels like the Bulldogs move to 2-1.

Cowbell Corner Prediction: Mississippi State 35, Kentucky 24

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