Cowbell Corner Crystal Ball: Predicting Auburn-Mississippi State

Can the improving Bulldogs finally break through with a win over the Tigers?

It's rarely easy to predict the outcome of a Southeastern Conference football game. On a lot of occasions, with a few exceptions, pretty much anything can happen on any given Saturday. That has perhaps never felt as true as it does this Saturday as Mississippi State prepares to host Auburn.

It's a game that, at first glance, it's probably easier to pick Auburn. The Tigers are the higher-profile team. They're the nearly-touchdown favorite. They're the team that entered this season with much higher expectations than the Bulldogs. Look a little deeper though and it becomes more and more apparent MSU has a great shot here.

Let's go ahead and spoil this for you. The Cowbell Corner Crystal Ball is calling the upset this week. Let's quickly run down some of the reasons why.

First, this is a game of two teams on different trajectories. Sometimes the eyeball test is the best possible gauge of what to expect. For the last two weeks, Mississippi State has shown obvious improvement. MSU went punch-for-punch with national power Georgia. State followed that up by going down to the game's final play at Ole Miss. It was two losses yes, but considering where the Bulldogs were for much of October and November, it was like night and day. Conversely, Auburn seems to deflate more and more by the week. They've lost two straight and didn't look at all good doing it. Overall, the Tigers are 5-4, but they could easily be 3-6. Games against Arkansas and Ole Miss went Auburn's way in large part because of controversial decisions by officials. It just simply feels like State enters Saturday's affair with more momentum and in a game as closely matched as this one, that matters.

Secondly, the Bulldogs should be closer to full strength than they've been lately. For as much-improved as State has looked the last couple of games, MSU has been undermanned due to COVID-19 positives, contact tracing and other reasons. Bulldogs head coach Mike Leach noted earlier this week that his team will still have low numbers on Saturday, but several key MSU players that haven't seen action the last couple of games should return including defensive standouts Tyrus Wheat and Jordan Davis. Again, that's a huge advantage for MSU to have two of its better defensive playmakers back in the mix.

Next, considering Davis and Wheat should return, it seems likely Mississippi State can continue its season-long trend of being strong defensively against the run. MSU is fourth in the SEC and 22nd in the country in rushing defense. Why does that matter? It means it seems likely Auburn will have to beat State through the air. And yes, that's a weakness for MSU. It has been on display the last two games as Georgia quarterback J.T. Daniels and Ole Miss signal caller Matt Corral have torched the Bulldog secondary. However Auburn quarterback Bo Nix hasn't proven himself to be a guy that can consistently beat the opposition with his arm. Perhaps Saturday he does so, but Auburn is 10th in the SEC in passing offense. Relying on that passing offense to try and win a game seems like a dangerous recipe for the Tigers.

Lastly, the pressure is ramped up on Auburn. Things haven't been going well. Head coach Gus Malzahn's job could very well be on the line in Starkville. If either of these two teams has a reason to play tight or perhaps conservatively, it's the Tigers. MSU, quite frankly, has little to lose on Saturday and a lot to gain. 

Here's guessing the Bulldogs indeed get the win they've been knocking at the door of the last few weeks, further cementing that the Leach era is staring to gain some traction at MSU.

Cowbell Corner Prediction: Mississippi State 24, Auburn 21

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