Cowbell Corner Crystal Ball: Predicting Mississippi State-Tulsa

For one last time in 2020, let's stare into the incredibly inaccurate (but always fun) Cowbell Corner Crystal Ball.

It's postseason time and for the 11th straight year, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are bowling. MSU battles No. 22 Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl on Thursday at 11 a.m. central. If you're looking for the game on your television, it's set to be on ESPN. That's what we know. There's plenty we don't know though as the Bulldogs and Golden Hurricane get set to do battle.

Here are three big questions that'll go a long way towards deciding today's game:

Which team wants it more?

Yes, it's incredibly cliche to say something like, 'It'll all come down to who wants it more.' But the Armed Forces Bowl might really come down to who wants it more. Bowl games are tricky. Some teams show up ready to play. Others are just ready to get the season over with. If either the Bulldogs or Hurricane show up on Thursday and just go through the motions, the other team is good enough to run the lackadaisical squad off the field. All that said, it's really hard to see either of these teams phoning it in. It's likely Tulsa will want to prove itself against an opponent out of the Southeastern Conference. MSU, meanwhile, has improved by the week lately and its young roster will be playing in a postseason game for the first time. It's difficult to imagine the Bulldogs not caring. But if one team happens to not be all that inspired Thursday, it wouldn't be the first time that's ever happened in a bowl game.

How big of a loss is no Zaven Collins for Tulsa?

If you missed it, Tulsa will be without perhaps its best player on Thursday. Linebacker Zaven Collins announced last week that he isn't playing in the Armed Forces Bowl and is turning his attention to the upcoming NFL Draft. It's a huge loss for the Hurricane to not have Collins. He won this year's Bronko Nagurski Trophy, presented annually to the country's top defensive player. He had 54 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, four sacks and four interceptions this season. Two of his interceptions clinched Tulsa wins. He's an impact player and the Bulldogs won't have to deal with him. Collins was a humongous piece of Tulsa's 6-2 season that almost resulted in an American Athletic Conference Championship. He was the centerpiece of a defense that was 23rd in the country in scoring defense and 27th in total defense. It absolutely bears watching to see how much of a drop off the Hurricane experiences without its defensive leader on the field.

Which Mississippi State offense shows up?

This question is related to the other two. MSU needs to have its head in the game and the Bulldogs have to take advantage of Collins not playing. If State's offense does that, it'll go a long way towards the maroon and white looking like the high-powered unit it appeared to be in the regular season finale when the Bulldogs racked up 51 points. Of course the Missouri game was a continuation of the strides MSU made offensively over the last half of the season. State had strong showings at Georgia and Ole Miss before beating Missouri. Don't forget though, stuck in the middle of those games was the matchup with Auburn when State fell back into the struggles it had experienced in October and the first part of November. So what will it be against Tulsa? Will State be the well-oiled machine it was against Missouri or the sluggish bunch of some prior weeks?

Here's guessing State's offense again shows up. Other than the aforementioned Auburn game, the Bulldogs have been pretty consistently good offensively ever since the trip to Georgia. It's easy to see some level of that success continuing and of course, MSU's defense has more than held its own all year. There's no reason not to believe that'll continue Thursday.

Tulsa is a tough opponent. There's no doubt about that. But the crystal ball sees MSU's SEC-level talent and improving roster as slightly better and predicts the Bulldogs will celebrate their first bowl win since 2017.

Cowbell Corner Prediction: Mississippi State 31, Tulsa 24

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