ESPN predicts blowout for Mississippi State in week three

Bulldogs have couple tune up games ahead before their SEC opener against Tennessee at Davis Wade Stadium.

Mississippi State Running Back Fluff Bothwell (#24) during the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, MS. | Mississippi State Athletics

STARKVILLE, Miss. — In the grand scheme of things, Mississippi State's victory over No. 12 Arizona State Saturday will do wonders for the stability of second-year coach Jeff Lebby's program.

What it hasn't done yet is make the computers jump aboard the hype train that the Bulldogs are loading with a week three game against FCS Alcorn State ahead of them.

The Bulldogs have a couple of weeks left of non-conference games ahead with Northern Illinois coming to town in Week Four before hosting No. 15 Tennessee in its SEC opener.

What ESPN Thinks

Despite it's upset victory over No. 12 Arizona State Saturday that gave coach Jeff Lebby his first signature win as Bulldogs coach, Mississippi State still finds itself near the bottom by ESPN's computer models.

Mississippi State Tight End Seydou Traore (#8) and fans during the game between the Arizona State University Sun Devils and the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville, MS. | Mississippi State Athletics

ESPN FPI (SEC) Rankings

1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Ole Miss
5. Tennessee
6. Auburn
7. Missouri
8. Texas A&M
9. LSU
10. Arkansas
11. South Carolina
12. Oklahoma
13. Florida
14. Vanderbilt
15. Kentucky
16. Mississippi State

For Mississippi State, its overall record projection has risen to just 5-7 overall with a 43% chance that Lebby leads his team to bowl eligibility for the first time since the 2022 season.

As far as postseason tournament chances go, the Bulldogs received a 1.8% chance to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff, but no shot of advancing or winning the national championship..

SP+ ratings is an analytical system updated each week by Bill Connelly, who bases his early season ratings on preseason projections, including special teams ratings. Over the course of the season, his preseason data is slowly phased out in favor of in-season date each week.

According to the SP+ expert computer model, Mississippi State is projected to blow out it's in-state foe, Alcorn State, by 47 points in a 50-3 victory.

What Lebby Said

Lebby went behind the scenes of the Bulldogs game winning touchdown caught by wide receiver Brenen Thompson. He praised his transfer pass catcher for adjusting to the ball while creating separation between himself and the defender.

"The ball was left just a little bit outside, but Brenen did an unbelievable job, great body control, and tracking it over his outside shoulder to go make the play," Lebby said Monday. "Drill it nonstop, talk about putting air under the ball to give our guys a chance to go chase it down and run it down. It was a great play."

Mississippi State Bulldogs wide receiver Brenen Thompson (0) reacts after a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

While the high of a monumental victory such as last week's can have some type of hangover effect for the following week's game, Lebby is confident that his veteran laden team can take a business as usual approach against the Braves.

"We’ve got to do an incredible job of creating great focus, on getting better," Lebby said. "There’s stuff all over the tape where we have the ability to play better. We’ll have to play better moving forward. That’s the focus. I think our older guys understand that. You’ve got to respect the game. You prepare the right way if you want to go play the right way."

It is important that Mississippi State maintains momentum after a thrilling win. While the taste of victory likely won't provide much change to strengthen the 2026 recruiting class, it can give the staff something to show recruits in the 2027 and 2028 classes moving forward.

"People want to win, recruits want to win. If you want to sign great players, you’ve got to find ways to win," Lebby said. "The hope part of it only lasts so long. So having the ability of finding a way to win against a top 10 team with all those guys there in that environment is a huge deal for us. I think we’re in it with some incredible players. We have to go find a way to keep stacking days and go 3-0 this Saturday."