What Mississippi State has to worry about (and what it doesn't) after the upset loss to Arkansas

Very few saw it coming, but on Saturday night, Mississippi State was this time on the wrong end of an upset. A week after toppling defending national champion LSU, it was the Bulldogs who were toppled, 21-14, by Arkansas. In a week's time, MSU ended the nation's then-longest winning streak down in Baton Rouge, then ended the Southeastern Conference's longest league-game losing streak by allowing Arkansas to win for the first time in a conference game since 2017. It was a string of 20 straight defeats for the Razorbacks before they ruined MSU's weekend.

So after two head-spinning weeks, just who is this Mississippi State team? What is real and what isn't? What bears watching in the weeks to come? Here are three things the Bulldogs might have to worry about (and three things they probably don't) as the season moves forward:

Mississippi State might have to worry about quarterback K.J. Costello's decision making and tendency to turn the football over. Costello has been a Bulldog for eight total quarters. He has turned the ball over seven total times (five interceptions and two fumbles). So he's on a pace, all by himself, to turn the football over 35 times this season. The greater concern here is of course his interceptions. Consider this. Back in Dak Prescott's senior season at Mississippi State, he threw 477 total passes and had just five interceptions all year. Costello has reached that total with only two games and 119 throws. Yes, Costello is going to throw the ball 50 or 60 times a game so he's going to have some balls picked off. It's inevitable. But it's clear he's going to have to protect the football more. It was, quite frankly, the difference in Saturday's game. He has all the talent in the world, but his decision making must go up a notch. And that's not to even mention his decision to not lower the shoulder on scrambles to try and pick up crucial first downs on Saturday. Costello has the potential to be elite, but there is still much room for improvement.

However Mississippi State doesn't have to worry about the overall effectiveness of the Air Raid offense – at least not yet. Was Saturday the Air Raid's finest hour? No. But it wasn't exactly a total bust either. the Bulldogs were still able to move the football down the field at points against the Razorbacks. The biggest knock against State's offense on Saturday was that it wasn't the explosive machine it had been seven days prior. And it's just not fair to expect that every week. At LSU, State had 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards. The Bulldogs had only one such play Saturday. The Arkansas zone forced MSU to keep things underneath and State simply couldn't break through for big yardage. Yes, it likely means the Bulldogs better get ready to see a lot more zone down the road, but remember this...the Air Raid has seen zone before and worked before. Mike Leach doesn't have an 18-year head coaching track record of making his offense work for nothing. Until teams slow down the Air Raid consistently, it seems safe to cautiously consider Saturday the exception rather than the rule. It also would've been interesting to see if that Arkansas zone would have been quite as good if running back Kylin Hill hadn't gotten hurt on the first series of the game. Speaking of...

Mississippi State might have to worry about Kylin Hill's health. Hill took a lick on MSU's first drive on Saturday, left the game and never returned. Postgame, Leach said he couldn't update Hill's status. Though not confirmed in any way, given the nature of the hit Hill took, how he staggered once getting to his feet and how he later returned to the sidelines with no obvious bodily injury, it could have perhaps been head-injury related. If it was, that of course is nothing to mess around with and could keep Hill out of further action. Again, that's all speculation at this point, but no Hill is a big problem for the State offense. It's not an unreasonable thought that had Hill played all of Saturday's game, the result would've been different as his explosiveness might could've gotten State a first down on one of the crucial 4th-and-shorts, or perhaps Hill could've caught a pass at some point and broken through that Arkansas zone. The Bulldogs need Hill healthy. There's no doubt about that. That said though...

Mississippi State doesn't appear to have to worry about the running back position in the years ahead. True freshmen Dillon Johnson and Jo'Quavious Marks are showing early signs that they are going to be just fine in the MSU offense in the long term. They're already pretty strong in the short term. Johnson rushed nine times for 39 yards and his first career touchdown Saturday. He also caught eight passes for 35 yards. Marks was similarly productive, rushing 10 times for 37 yards and catching a team-high 10 balls for 50 yards. Neither seemed overwhelmed at all by the moment. Yes, State desperately needs Hill in 2020 to let Johnson and Marks have a little more time to develop without being thrust into the spotlight. But the young pups are already gnawing a bit and it doesn't appear to be long until they're ready to bite. Now on the other side of the ball...

Mississippi State might still have to worry about its secondary. There is a lot of youth and inexperience back there. That was known coming into the year. And while the group has been better than most expected, there are still some head-shaking moments when watching them. On Saturday, Arkansas' two offensive touchdowns came on passes to receivers that didn't have Bulldog defenders anywhere around them. Now the group made some plays as well. Even little-known Londyn Craft had a key third-down tackle and fourth-down fumble recovery to stop an Arkansas drive with the Razorbacks knocking on the door of the end zone. But the growing pains with this group are almost assuredly not over with. Still...

Mississippi State's defense is no longer (at least not at the moment) the humongous question mark it once was. The Bulldogs were more than solid at LSU in the first week. They were even better, overall, on Saturday against the Razorbacks, limiting Arkansas to only 275 yards of offense. The group has 10 total sacks this year. They've forced three turnovers. They've held their first two opponents to 10-of-31 on third-down conversions. If State fans had been offered this type of defense before the season started, it'd have likely been accepted nearly unanimously. Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett's group has been quite impressive and despite how Saturday turned out on the scoreboard, if the MSU defense keeps this up and the Air Raid gets back anywhere close to its form from opening week, this Bulldog team could still far exceed preseason expectations.

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