Cowbell Corner Crystal Ball: Predicting Missouri-Mississippi State

Can the Bulldogs close the regular season out in winning fashion?

Perception often is reality. And when Mississippi State battles Missouri on Saturday, the perception of the 2020 season is on the line.

How will the first year of the Mike Leach era in Starkville be remembered? Will it be recalled only as the year MSU couldn't get the Air Raid off the ground and frustrations built? Or will it be remembered as a season where State took its lumps, but showed marked improvement down the stretch?

It really feels like Saturday will decide that. A win seemingly provides proof positive that the strides Mississippi State took forward at Georgia and at Ole Miss were real. A loss, combined with last week's defeat to Auburn, is likely to make it seem as though the Georgia and Ole Miss performances were simply flukes. 

So what decides today's game? For Mississippi State, it all probably comes down to the answers of these four basic questions.

Will anyone help Walley?

As a true freshman, wide receiver Jaden Walley has become Mississippi State's biggest offensive threat. Problem is, he's not getting a ton of help. Walley is now MSU's freshman single-season receiving yardage record holder and has 100 or more yards receiving in three straight games. But State has lost all three of those contests. Walley might be doing his part, but another Bulldog or two simply has to step up. Maybe that's a fellow receiver like Osirus Mitchell or Austin Williams or fellow freshman Tulu Griffin. Maybe it's one of the running backs. It doesn't matter who it is. Walley just needs more help than he's gotten of late for the Dogs to top Missouri.

Can Rogers protect the football?

True freshman quarterback Will Rogers has shown promise of his own this season, but last week he threw a couple of interceptions that hurt State's cause in the loss to Auburn. To put it simply, Mississippi State isn't good enough to overcome a bunch of turnovers against pretty much anyone. It might not be fair to essentially tell a quarterback he can't afford to make a mistake. But it sure feels as though Rogers has to be almost perfect against Missouri, at least when it comes to holding on to the football.

Can the offensive line protect Rogers?

One of the most disappointing parts of MSU's loss to Auburn last week was it seemed as though the Bulldog offensive line took a step back after playing well at Georgia and Ole Miss. Leach said so himself in his postgame comments. Against Auburn, the group didn't adequately protect Rogers and surrendered six sacks. Rogers didn't have nearly the time he had gotten in MSU's previous two affairs. There is perhaps no more oft-used football cliche than saying that games are won in the trenches...but games are won in the trenches. The Bulldogs have to win the battle up front against Missouri to win Saturday's game.

Does the defense keep on keeping on?

Mississippi State's defense continues to exceed all expectations this season. The Bulldogs are fourth in the SEC in total defense coming into Saturday's game. Despite injuries and opt outs and depth issues and inexperience and COVID-19 issues, defensive coordinator Zach Arnett just continuously gets the most out of his group. There is no reason at all to think the Bulldogs won't hold their own defensively yet again today. And they'll almost assuredly have to for State to win as it's certainly tough to see the Bulldogs having any chance to win a high-scoring shootout given MSU's inconsistency offensively.

Here's guessing Mississippi State really is the improved team that had strong showings at Georgia and Ole Miss. Here's guessing the Auburn setback was the outlier here and not the two games before it. Here's guessing the Bulldogs close out the regular season with a win, though it can't be stressed enough how inaccurate the guesses in this space have been this season. 

Cowbell Corner Prediction: Mississippi State 28, Missouri 21

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