Cowbell Corner Crystal Ball: Predicting Texas A&M-Mississippi State
If anything has struggled more than Mississippi State through the season's first three weeks, it has been the Cowbell Corner Crystal Ball. So far this year, we've gazed into the future three times. All three times, we've been off. Nonetheless, it's time to try once more as the Bulldogs welcome No. 11 Texas A&M to Starkville this weekend with MSU looking to get back on the winning track and the Aggies trying to maintain momentum after upsetting Florida last Saturday. Here are three things that will determine Mississippi State's fate:
Who plays, and who doesn't? Unless you've been under a rock the last week, the rumor mill has been churning that MSU head coach Mike Leach might be shaking things up. To be fair, at this point, nothing is confirmed. Leach has though now, multiple times, alluded to trying to figure out which players are buying into his system and which players are – in his word – malcontents. Between Leach's words, the rumors and the struggles on offense the last two weeks, it seems safe to say changes of some sort should probably be expected. Leach and his staff are incredibly tight-lipped when it comes to any changes at all to the depth chart though, so it'll likely be game time before any adjustments come to light. Obviously though, who plays (and who doesn't) will influence Saturday's outcome.
Can State stop giving the football away? The bottom line of MSU's struggles the last two weeks has been the Bulldogs keep turning the football over. You can make a case that without all the turnovers, State is sitting at 3-0. Alas though, the one thing MSU has done consistently this season – even in the win over LSU – has been give the football to the opposition. The Bulldogs are averaging nearly five turnovers per game (14 total through three games). The reasons for that are many. There have been many poor decisions by quarterback K.J. Costello. State's offensive line has consistently been beaten despite having a numbers advantage. At Kentucky, a couple of balls should have been caught by Bulldog receivers but ended up in the hands of Wildcat defensive backs. Whatever the reason, if MSU's turnover troubles continue Saturday, the Bulldogs will likely struggle to stay in the game.
Does the defense once again shine? It remains unbelievable the way the Mississippi State defense has performed this season. The Bulldogs are second in the SEC and 12th in the country in total defense. They're second in the league in both passing defense and rushing defense. MSU has just been consistently good on that side of the ball despite all the questions about the group headed into the season. And it this point, until the Air Raid offense can figure things out, it appears State's best path to victory is for its defense to continue to outperform preseason expectations. The Bulldogs will face a tall task Saturday against maybe the best quarterback they've seen all season in Kellen Mond, but the State defense has risen to the challenge in all three games this year so it seems like a safe bet MSU will once again hold its own.
The guess here though is that it won't be enough. Until MSU's offense shows it can consistently move the football and not turn it over, it's just tough to predict a win right now for the Bulldogs. Not to mention, the Aggies come to town feeling pretty good about themselves after last week's win over Florida. It does bear mentioning that the Bulldogs have a history of upsetting ranked Aggie teams. And Texas A&M looked awfully average against Vanderbilt and Alabama in the season's first two weeks. But right now, it just feels like the Aggies are in a better place than the Bulldogs.
Cowbell Corner Prediction: Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 14
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