Where is Mississippi State's sixth win most likely to come from?

The Bulldogs will be underdogs in each of its final three games, but some upsets are more realistic and easier to achieve than others.

Mississippi State Bulldogs mascots during the second quarter against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Mississippi State needs just one more win to reach its biggest goal of the season: going to a bowl game.

Based on Monday’s press conferences, the Bulldogs’ coaches and players are aware of this fact and are approaching the way they should.

“We’ve talked about it a ton, we want to be postseason eligible as soon as possible and now it takes on more,” Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby said. “Our guys understand that it’s right out there in front of us on Saturday.”

That attitude showed up last week when Lebby was asked if he considered Arkansas the last winnable game.

“No, I don’t,” he said in response.

It’s the absolutely correct approach and thinking Mississippi State’s players and coaches should have.

But everyone else is free to think more freely and look at the final three games on the Bulldogs’ schedule and wonder where one more win will come.

Mississippi State’s final three opponents are all ranked and include, No. 5 Georgia, No. 19 Missouri and No. 7 Ole Miss.

Depending on the results of other games, all three of those opponents could be playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff and/or the SEC Championship game.

The Bulldogs have a chance to ruin one team’s post-season dreams while fulfilling their own. Here’s how this writer ranks the remaining opponents for Mississippi State beginning with the least winnable game.

No. 19 Missouri Tigers

A Mississippi State fan I know asked me about this very topic and said they thought Missouri was the most likely game the Bulldogs will win.

“What? No. That’s the least winnable game,” was my response and here’s my reasoning:

1. It’s a road game. Home teams always have an advantage. Why else would Arkansas have been a 4.5-point favorite last week?

2. It’s a terrible matchup for the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State’s greatly-improved defense still has some troubles stopping rushing attacks. The defense has held just two teams to 100 rushing yards or less this season: Alcorn State and No. 13 Texas.

The Bulldogs’ rank 94th amongst FBS teams in run defense with 162.1 rushing yards allowed per game and 4.32 yards per carry. Arkansas just ran for 239 yards and lost by just three points.

Guess what Missouri is great at? Running the ball.

The Tigers boast the SEC’s best rushing attack and 10th best in the nation with 235.5 yards per game and 5.32 yards per game.

That attack is led by sophomore Ahmad Hardy, who ranks fourth in the nation with 937 rushing yards and 117.1 per game.

Maybe Mississippi State shows something this week against No. 5 Georgia to change my opinion, but it would have to be something massive.

No. 7 Ole Miss

Let’s acknowledge just one time how massive this year’s Egg Bowl could’ve been if three plays go differently for Mississippi State and both teams had just one loss.

Right? That’d be the game of the year. But, alas, that’s not going to happen.

A lot of this depends on what happens in the weeks before this game. If the Bulldogs beat either Georgia or Missouri and Ole Miss needs one more win to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff…it could get ugly in Starkville.

No. 5 Georgia

Yes, the highest ranked team is the Bulldogs’ most winnable game for two reasons:

1. It’s a home game. Beating Arkansas was very important because it likely gets the fans to show up this week and just see what happened to Arizona State, Tennessee and Texas when Davis Wade Stadium was packed.

2. Georgia tends to give up leads to its opponents and, other than against No. 4 Alabama, has managed to comeback each time. There’s a lot of talent involved in that, but some luck too. At some point that luck runs out.