Mizzou Has More Than Braggin' Rights on the Line Against Illinois

The annual rivalry game in St. Louis is Missouri's last non-conference game of the season.

Dec 22, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers head coach Dennis Gates looks on during the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

In Monday night's SEC-Big 10 clash, it will just mean more for the SEC team.

Missouri has much more on the line than Illinois. The Fighting Illini have earned what they needed out of non-conference play, earning two ranked wins and losing in close games to two other ranked opponents.

Missouri, on the other hand, is at risk of entering SEC play with its only win over a top-100 team in KenPom's rankings being a blowout win over Minnesota, currently ranked at No. 99 in KenPom. Missouri's only showing against a ranked team was a bit of a disaster — a 80-60 loss to then-No. 21 Kansas. If the Tigers are unable to pull off an upset over Illinois, it would place all of the hopes of a NCAA Tournament bid on what would need to be an impressive SEC slate.

"It's a barometer to (the) NCAA (Tournament)," Missouri head coach Dennis Gates said of playing against Illinois. "Playing a ranked opponent, being able play a rival game, I think it's all encompassing, and it's a great window into our next portion."

In the four seasons since both the Kansas and Illinois rivalries have been revived for Missouri, the Tigers have had two seasons where they lost to both border foes. In both of those seasons, Missouri missed the tournament. In two of those seasons, Missouri won of the two games. Unsurprisingly, those were the two years in the Gates era that Missouri made the NCAA Tournament.

In 2023, losing the two games by a combined 33 points ended up being a sign of what's to come in what ended up being a winless conference slate for Missouri.

"(We) know every possession matters," Missouri guard Anthony Robinson II said of So we're just going in here and preparing ourselves for the SEC."

Every possession certainly mattered in last year's game, where Illinois came away with a 80-77 win after Kasparas Jakucionis sank a jumper to break a tie with 28 seconds left. There four lead changes in the final five minutes. Earlier in the half, Gates was called for a technical foul for a reaction he had on the sideline.

"You have possession-by-possession games where sometimes it may not go your way early, but you fight back," Gates said of the typical intensity in this matchup. "You have different runs take place. You have certain crowds, whether it's ours or our opponents, taking over the energy of the building."

Missouri was unable to withstand a heavy tide in its loss to Kansas this season. The Tigers were outscored 23-3 in the middle eight minutes of the game. If Missouri is unable to do so against Illinois, the question becomes how much Missouri will have to do in SEC play to have a chance at a tournament bid.

Ahead of the Illinois' matchup, Missouri's strength of schedule is by far the lowest in the SEC, according to KenPom's ratings. It's the 361st lowest in the country. Gates has maintained that he's satisfied with Missouri's non-conference schedule, wanting to avoid over-scheduling.

Whether or not Missouri will have done enough in non-conference play to add to its resume and also sharpen its edge enough for conference play largely hinges on Monday night's matchup. The answers to both of those questions likely won't come until it could be too late.