What Mizzou Basketball Needs to do to Beat Miami in March Madness

For the third time in four seasons under head coach Dennis Gates, Missouri basketball will be dancing in March. The Tigers' journey to the big dance was unconventional, electrifying and at times even unexpected, but regardless, they made it.

Missouri earned a bid to the NCAA Tournament as the No. 10 seed in the West Region and will play the 7-seeded Miami Hurricanes at 9:10 p.m. Friday at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri — getting the closest possible outcome to a home game possible.

Despite losing two of its three NCAA Tournament games under Gates, Missouri has actually never played as the lower seed in such games. It beat Utah State in a No. 7 vs No. 10 matchup and losing to 15-seeded Princeton the following round in 2023, and lost in the Round of 64 as a No. 6 seed to an 11-seeded Drake squad in 2025, meaning its lost consecutive games in the Big Dance.

Missouri also lost three consecutive games to end the 2025-26 season, falling to Oklahoma on the road, Arkansas at home and Kentucky at the SEC Tournament. That's two trends of losing the Tigers need to snap should they upset Miami on Friday.

So how can Gates right his ship and bring postseason success back to the program?

In theory, identifying a team similar to Miami would be help to figure out how Missouri should attack its opponents. Missouri's played a wide variety of teams in their lengthy season, ranging from an up-tempo Texas A&M squad, to a superstar-fueled Arkansas offense and a size-oriented Florida team.

But when running down Missouri's 2025-26 schedule, there's a strong argument to be made that the team most similar to Miami wasn't one of Missouri's opponents, rather Missouri itself.

Stat	Missouri 2025-26	Miami 2025-26 season
Points per game	79.7	81.9
FT Attempts per game	24.2	22.4
FT Percentage	68.6%	68.5%
3PT Attempts per game	20.5	18.9
3PT Percentage	35%	34.7%
Leading Scorer	Mark Mitchell (18.3)	Malik Reneau (18.8)

Not to mention, the teams are the closest thing to a coin flip among all First-Round matchups in this year's bracket.

How are teams playing entering the NCAAT?

Using Torvik team rankings for the past month (since Feb. 17), here is the gap between teams in the 4/13 to 8/9 games. pic.twitter.com/EagKrcK34C
— Blake Lovell (@theblakelovell) March 18, 2026

So while matchup prepping for Miami is obviously important, Missouri should focus on beating — or not beating — itself. Here's what it should hone in on to advance to the second round.

Staying out of Foul Trouble

Foul trouble has plagued Missouri all season, specifically in its frontcourt. Starting center Shawn Phillips Jr. posted season averages of 7.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in just 20.3 minutes per game — the latter of which was the lowest among Missouri's SEC starters.

Unfortunately for Phillips and the Tigers, the reason for his limited minutes wasn't due to a late-season uptick, but for his foul trouble. The senior transfer posted a team-high 3 fouls per game along with posting 5.9 fouls per 40 minutes, the seventh-highest mark in Power Five.

When Phillips plays himself off the court, it impacts the Tigers in tremendous — and sometimes irreparable — ways. He racked up three fouls in just five first-half minutes in Missouri's SEC Tournament loss to Kentucky, leaving backups Trent Burns and Nicholas Randall to fill his shoes.

Kentucky guard Denzel Aberdeen (1) is fouled by Missouri center Shawn Phillips Jr. (15) during their Day 2 2026 SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament game at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., Thursday, March 12, 2026. | DENNY SIMMONS / THE TENNESSEAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"There is no doubt in my mind, not having him in the first half impacted the game greatly," Gates said after the loss.

Phillips fouled out in 19 minutes of action, but finished the game with a team-high 10 plus-minus, while Burns and Randall were a combined -15. It's hard to find a game that better exemplifies Phillips' ever-so important role with the Tigers than that one.

"When he was on the court, you guys saw the domination,” Gates said. “You guys saw he was behind us emotionally. He was behind us mentally, and he challenged his team in a huddle, and they responded a certain way.”

Missouri needs Phillips' presence against Miami, especially considering the imposing frontcourt the Canes roster. There's no more do-overs with foul trouble — every game is now do-or-die.

Elevate Guard Play

Missouri's backcourt is helmed by the trio of T.O. Barrett, Jayden Stone and Anthony Robinson II. If one were look at each members' peak this season, they would probably walk away thinking Missouri has an elite backcourt rotation.

Robinson, the initial starting point guard, scored a season-high 19 points in the monster Jan. 3 upset win over Florida to cap off a run in which he both scored 15 or more points and dished out five or more assists in three of his last four games.

Robinson's play eventually declined, leading Barrett to take his starting job and run with it, pouring in a career-high 21 points in his debut as a starter against Oklahoma only to break that career-high with a 28-point performance against Tennessee one month later. Even Barrett had his struggles, though, scoring 5 points in three of Missouri's final seven regular-season games.

Feb 18, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers guard T.O. Barrett (5) dribbles the ball as Vanderbilt Commodores guard Mike James (0) defends during the first half of the game at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Throughout it all, Stone, who started at shooting guard for 19 of his 25 games, seemed like he could be the reliable piece the backcourt needed. He scored 13 points or more in six of his first seven SEC games, and scored double-digit points in 12 of his first 14.

Despite playing elite for selective stints, all three members of the trio fizzled out near the season's end. Here's what their stats were in Missouri's three-game losing stretch.

Robinson: 6.3 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.7 APG, 2 SPG, 4.7 FPG, 40% FG, 28.6% 3FG
Barrett: 9.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG 4.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, 3 FPG, 30% FG, 0% 3FG
Stone: 8.3 PPG, 5 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.7 SPG, 1 FPG, 38.5% FG, 30.8% 3FG

To be at its best, Missouri needs all three to be clicking. Recently, it's gotten none of them. Mark Mitchell has now set and tied his career-high of 32 points in back-to-back games, but his one-man-band effort was all for not, as Missouri lost twice regardless.

If Missouri can hone in on these two aspects, as well as keep the consistent performances from Mitchell, it'll be in prime position to pull off a First-Round upset against Miami and advance to the Round of 32.

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