Final Predictions For NC State vs. No. 15 Miami
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RALEIGH — Since becoming NC State's head coach, Dave Doeren has just one win over Miami and has never beaten the Hurricanes in Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida. He'll have a chance to lead the Wolfpack down to Miami Gardens and knock off a Miami team ranked No. 15 in the latest iteration of the College Football Playoff rankings.
The Wolfpack enters the matchup coming off a win over a highly-ranked Georgia Tech team and a bye week, so there will certainly be questions about lost momentum. However, the confident NC State roster believes it can certainly pull off a second-straight upset.
Miami, led by veteran quarterback Carson Beck and a host of top-end defensive talent, struggled throughout the last four weeks with a pair of losses. However, the chaos of the ACC has moved the Hurricanes back into contention for a spot in the CFP and the ACC title game.
Will Doeren be able to continue his November magic, or will the Hurricanes survive the Pack in South Florida?
Maintaining Focus
While the spirits were certainly high after the Georgia Tech win, and for good reason, Doeren didn't want his team to lose focus during the bye week. He knew the Wolfpack finally played four complete quarters for the first time all season and could go on a run the rest of the season.
"What you've got to guard against is complacency that can come from that. It's the first thing I talked to the guys about," Doeren said. "... We have to understand what it took to get that win and to be able to repeat something like that and it's even harder on the road."
NC State already felt the high of a 3-0 start with some close wins over East Carolina and Virginia and ultimately stumbled for a long period, falling to 4-4. That stretch made Doeren and the staff more vigilant in looking out for potential traits that caused the collapse.
"Been really guarding against the attaboy syndrome, I guess you call it, trying to get these guys to understand, 'Hey, enjoy the win for a couple days because we have a bye. But then once we started our Miami prep, that's over. We got to flush it, just like you do a loss,'" Doeren said.
Bailey vs. Beck
While NC State sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey downplayed the personal importance of the Miami matchup, it's clear this game means a lot to him. He grew up in Hollywood, Florida, in the shadow of the Hurricane program. Head coach Mario Cristobal and the recruiting staff came in late in Bailey's process after a stellar final season at Chaminade Madonna Prep. He chose the Pack.
"I’ve been playing good, if that’s not enough to prove to them, just winning overall would put a good stamp on the game," Bailey said. "It’s not going to do anything to me and them, personally, if you know what I mean?”
Miami head coach Mario Cristobal on NC State quarterback and South Florida native CJ Bailey:
— Tucker Sennett (@SennettTucker) November 11, 2025
“We know him. Certainly a local product that has developed into a great player.” pic.twitter.com/t4boimWeeO
He'll enter the Miami matchup after his best performance as the Wolfpack quarterback. It was a three-touchdown showing with over 300 yards passing against a team then-ranked No. 8 in the nation. His competition has played a lot of high-level football.
Beck, in his first and likely only year in Miami, has been similar to what he was at Georgia. There are flashes of brilliance followed by lapses in judgment that ultimately lead to Miami's downfall. The game will likely come down to Bailey and Beck limiting turnovers. In games where the Hurricane quarterback has thrown more than one interception, Miami is 1-2 on the season.
Injury Impact
Part of what made NC State's win over Georgia Tech even more impressive was who the Wolfpack got the victory without. Hollywood Smothers, the ACC's leading rusher, sat out with an injury. Tight end Justin Joly also sat after suffering an injury against Pitt the week before.
According to CBS Sports reporter Matt Zenitz, Joly and Smothers are tracking toward playing against the Hurricanes on Saturday. While the Wolfpack offense scored 48 points without them, they make the group even more dynamic.
NC State star running back Hollywood Smothers and standout tight end Justin Joly are both likely to be able to play against No. 15 Miami on Saturday after both missing the team’s win over Georgia Tech due to injury, sources tell @CBSSports pic.twitter.com/Vmiba2NBXp
— Matt Zenitz (@mzenitz) November 13, 2025
The news for the Hurricanes wasn't as promising. The ACC availability report from Thursday listed starting running back Mark Fletcher Jr. and star defensive back Keionte Scott as out for Saturday's game.
Final Prediction
While NC State is coming into the game with some serious confidence and a recently proven track record against top-25 competition, Miami still poses serious threats, particularly on the defensive line. Standout pass rushers Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. could be major problems for NC State's offensive line in the game, causing Bailey to be off-schedule often.
If Bailey plays to the ceiling he set in the Georgia Tech game, it might not matter. Even so, the injury-riddled Wolfpack defense will have to get enough stops in key situations to hang on for a win. It might not be easy. The Hurricanes pull this one out, beating NC State 31-28.
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Tucker Sennett graduated summa cum laude with a B.A. in Sports Journalism from the esteemed Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. A former basketball player, he has gained valuable experience working at Cronkite News and brings a deep passion for sports and reporting to his role as the NC State Wolfpack Beat Writer On SI.
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