NC State Football Win Tiers for 2025

What are the Wolfpack's Must-Win games? The potential losses?

Sep 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren leads his team onto the field against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first quarter at the Dukes Mayo Classic at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

NC State football opens the 2025 season in a little over two weeks. As the Wolfpack race to prepare for the opener against East Carolina, more and more clarity and information about the team's opponents has become available.

Every college football team has its must-win games, its potential upsets and other types of games coaches and fans alike circle on the calendar. Here are some tiers for the NC State football schedule in 2025 trying to determine what kind of opponents the Wolfpack will deal with.

Must-Win Games

The Wolfpack faces three opponents in 2025 that the team simply can't lose to from a talent disparity standpoint.

1. East Carolina - Aug. 28

Dec 28, 2024; Annapolis, MD, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (16)] scrambles away from East Carolina Pirates linebacker Ryheem Craig (32) during the first half of the Go Bowling Military Bowl at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

NC State head coach Dave Doeren would like nothing more than to exorcise the demons of last year's Military Bowl loss to ECU in the 2025 season opener. ECU figures to be a middle-of-the-road team in the American Athletic Conference, so NC State should be able to handle the Pirates.

2. At Wake Forest - Sep. 11

Oct 5, 2024; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (16) throws the ball during the first half of the game against Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

In the ACC preseason media poll, voters picked Wake Forest to finish 16th out of 17 teams in the conference. The Wolfpack lost to the Demon Deacons in 2024, snapping a two-year win streak. A loss to the severely diminished 2025 Wake Forest squad would be shocking.

3. Campbell - Oct. 4

Nov 11, 2023; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; The North Carolina State Wolfpack helmet rests on the bench during the second half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Howard-Imagn Images | William Howard-Imagn Images

This will be the first matchup between the Campbell Fighting Camels and NC State. Campbell finished its CAA season 3-9 with just one conference win in 2024.

Conference (Sort of) Wins

The Wolfpack has a few matchups in-conference that are not guaranteed wins, but games the team must have to improve in 2025.

4. Virginia - Sep. 6

Nov 30, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (16) celebrates after the Wolfpack defeat the North Carolina Tar Heels at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Despite both teams being in the ACC, the game won't count in the conference standings due to a scheduling quirk. Virginia was picked 14th in the media poll and should be one of the weaker teams in the conference.

5. Virginia Tech - Sep. 27

Nov 18, 2023; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback Brennan Armstrong (5) runs the ball against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images | Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Another matchup with a team picked by the media to finish lower in the ACC than the Wolfpack, although just one spot. The home game makes this is an important win for Doeren and NC State.

Coin-Flips

6. At Duke - Sep. 20

Nov 9, 2024; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils cornerback Joshua Pickett (26) tackles North Carolina State Wolfpack running back Jordan Waters (7) during the second half of the game at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Duke looks to be a strong ACC opponent in 2025 under head coach Manny Diaz. The Wolfpack will need to play at a high-level to snap a two-game losing streak to the Blue Devils, but it's not out of the cards.

7. At Pitt - Oct. 25

Oct 3, 2020; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack safety Jakeen Harris (6) tackles Pittsburgh Panthers running back Vincent Davis (22) during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. The Wolfpack won 30-29. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Pitt finished just one spot above NC State in the media poll, giving the Wolfpack some bulletin board material ahead of this matchup.

8. North Carolina - Nov. 29

Nov 30, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack running back Hollywood Smothers (20) reacts with wide receiver Wesley Grimes (6) after scoring a touchdown with 25 seconds to go in the fourth quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Can Dave Doeren and the Wolfpack spoil the debut season of Bill Belichick? The Wolfpack and Tar Heels seem destined for an explosive matchup to finish the season.

Longshots

9. At Notre Dame - Oct. 11

Sep 9, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack wide receiver Keyon Lesane (15) runs after a catch during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

The Fighting Irish opened at No. 6 in the preseason AP Poll. NC State could play spoiler in this spot, but it would take a monumental effort on the road.

10. Georgia Tech - Nov. 1

Nov 21, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key talks to North Carolina State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren after a game at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Wolfpack and Yellow Jackets played an epic game in 2024, with Georgia Tech stealing a 30-29 victory in Atlanta. With quarterback Haynes King returning, the Yellow Jackets will be a tough opponent for the Wolfpack again.

11. At Miami - Nov. 15

Nov 4, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher Jr. (22) is tackled by North Carolina State Wolfpack linebacker Payton Wilson (11) during the second half at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

The Hurricanes were ranked No. 10 in the opening AP Poll and will look to bounce back after a difficult finish to the 2024 season. Road games at Hard Rock Stadium can be bizarre, but Miami seems to be the more talented team prior to the start of the season.

12. Florida State - Nov. 21

Oct 8, 2022; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA;North Carolina State Wolfpack running back Jordan Houston (3) runs the ball during the first half against the Florida State Seminoles at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images | Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images

Florida State is a little bit of a mystery coming into the 2025 season after last year's debacle. The Wolfpack will be on a short week for this matchup and FSU will be a talented team. It's just a matter of whether or not the Seminoles give up on the season if things go wrong early.

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