College Football Upset Picks for Gasparilla Bowl and Round 1 College Football Playoff

Iain MacMillan | 3 Hours Ago

Bet on Oklahoma to upset Alabama in the opening round of the College Football Playoff. / David Leong-Imagn Images

After a light weekend with just two college football games to watch and bet on, it's time to get into the opening round of the College Football Playoff as well as the meat of the Bowl season.

If you're looking for a couple of upset picks for this weekend's slate of games, you're in the right spot. I have two underdogs I'm betting on, including one for the first round of the playoffs and one for this weekend's bowl games.

College Football Upset Picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Memphis +166 vs. NC State
• Oklahoma +100 vs. Alabama

Memphis vs. NC State Prediction

Pick: Memphis +166

I’m not convinced NC State was nearly as good as their record indicated this season. If you look at their overall numbers, they rank 73rd in the country in adjusted net EPA and 45th in net success rate. Memphis ranks 28th and 43rd in those two metrics.

What’s even more important than that is Memphis is a run-first team that does so extremely effectively. Memphis averages 5.0 yards per carry and they’re second in the country in Rush EPA. NC State allows 4.6 yards per carry on defense and is 90th in opponent rush EPA

This game is a stylistic nightmare for NC State.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction

In this week's edition of First to Forde, I wrote about why I'm backing Oklahoma to upset Alabama for the second time this season:

I bet on Oklahoma to upset Alabama earlier this season, and I'll do it again in the rematch. This, in my opinion, is a matchup between an underrated Sooners team and an overrated Crimson Tide team. Oklahoma ranks 15th in adjusted net EPA per play and 12th in net success rate. Alabama ranks 22nd and 30th in those two metrics.

Pick: Oklahoma +100

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