NC State Bubble Watch: Why the Wolfpack Deserves to Be in March Madness

CHARLOTTE — NC State's run through the ACC Tournament ended after just one win over Pittsburgh, as the Wolfpack ran into the hump it just couldn't get over in the 2025-26 season in the form of the Virginia Cavaliers during the quarterfinals of the event. Will Wade's group fought valiantly, but now must wait for Selection Sunday to find out what the future may hold.

One win should've been enough to get the Wolfpack into the field of 68 teams for the NCAA Tournament, though, as it crossed the 20-win threshold and already held fairly strong metrics before the ACC Tournament. Another Quadrant 1 loss to a Virginia squad destined for the second weekend of the Big Dance shouldn't hurt those odds.

Revisiting NC State's NCAA Tournament résumé

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack head coach Will Wade during the second half against the Virginia Cavaliers at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

There are a handful of key criteria that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee looks at when picking at-large teams for the 68-team event. These standards are fluid from year-to-year, mostly depending on the strength of each conference and on the collective strength of the bubble teams. The metrics are listed below, but for a full review of the Wolfpack's résumé, head HERE.

BPI (ESPN): 39th
KenPom Rankings: 35th
KPI: 30th
NET: 35th
Strength of Record (ESPN): 44th
Torvik: 39th
Wins Above Bubble: 0.84 (43rd)

The case for the Wolfpack

Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Jr. Paul McNeil (2) shoots the ball against the Virginia Cavaliers during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

NC State has a lot of things going for it when it comes to earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack will enter Selection Sunday with a 20-13 record, holding five Quadrant 1 victories and six Quadrant 2 victories. The main blemish on NC State's résumé is a loss to Georgia Tech during the middle part of the regular season, which ended up being a Quadrant 4 loss.

However, Wade said it best. Every team has warts and the Wolfpack is no exception. The primary thing helping push the Pack above the rest of the bubble is the fact that the bubble is about as weak as it's ever been. As things currently stand, according to several bracketologists, including ESPN's Joe Lunardi, the Wolfpack is among the last four teams with byes in the NCAA Tournament field.

The Wolfpack competed in the top half of the ACC through most of the season. A terrible stretch over the final month that saw the team lose six of its final seven games sank some of those hopes, but it corrected those woes with the win over Pittsburgh in the second round of the conference tournament.

When NC State plays closer to its ceiling than its floor, it's been competitive with top-tier programs like Kansas, Miami and even beat North Carolina in Raleigh. Several teams in front of the Pack in the NET rankings have worse records against Quadrant 1 opposition. Wade's group was tested and failed a lot, but grew from that failure over time. Because of that, it should be a part of the Madness.